Actually you don’t need to make adjustments, just give us a heads up on the weekly thread.
Of those seventeen players, Hoffman’s top 20 finish in 2017 and 2018 makes him one of the better prospects. I was mentioning it as a note of caution for people intent on going mad on the exchange prices.
Majors (apart from the Masters) are amongst the hardest weeks of the year because the markets are sculpted to within an inch of their life by the start of the week, and it’s getting increasingly hard for non-fancied players to win them. For a largely unknown winner, you’d need to go back to Keegan Bradley in 2011.
I’d much prefer a bog standard week featuring a rubbish European Tour event in Oman or Kenya and a PGA event where someone like Hoffman is the 18/1 favourite over a major.
2 Likes
I love how poorly this comment aged and is a real reason not to make assumptions about players based on gut feelings.
What happened in the Open Championship was that the course was set up like a typical PGA Tour stop and the weather cooperated. Hence the PGA Tour dominated leaderboard.
You usually have the best chance to make money in a weak field PGA Tour event on an easy golf course. That’s when the longshots come in and you get several +500 cashes in the Top 20 market.
You get lots of extra props and matchups in the majors though so you do get a lot of moneymaking opportunities.
Logic seems a bit circular; I’m guessing that (in part) the fact that PGA Tour players did well makes you think it was set up like a PGA Tour course? I think the weather played a role, but it was still set up to play like a British Open course. If it wasn’t, then why didn’t the markets price it like a normal PGA Tour event beforehand?
I saw the footage and it was normal target golf with soft fairways and greens
You are too confident in your answers Daniel.
5 Likes
I remember Datagolf’s projections treated it like a regular PGA Tour stop, I bet it accordingly and I had a great week
The opposite field event the same week was where Datagolf really made hay though
As for the tournament it was target practice with dart after dart
We were high on a lot of PGA Tour guys, but we did still make adjustments for Open experience and history.
1 Like
I’m only seeing this now because I don’t bother too much with the forums now, but I’d like to say that pointing out a player has a poor history at the Open Championship is absolutely not a “gut feeling”, and digging out a seven month old post seems somewhat unnecessary.
If you look at the results for that tournament, of the top seventeen players I pointed out only Berger finished in the top ten. and Streelman and Harman scraped T19th. You would have lost money blindly backing them to win or to place top 20.
Across the week, Datagolf had more bets than any other tournament in all of 2021, which shows that Open experience (or lack thereof) was a significant factor in how books priced it up compared to the data. In the event, they made 11 units, one of the best weeks of the year, due to strong performances in 3 balls and match-ups.
In 2019, however, the most bets Datagolf had in a tournament was also the Open at Portrush, and the results that year were -25.75 units, which is the worst week Datagolf has ever had in three years of documented results.
I’m going to predict that for many years to come the discrepancy between how the books and datagolf price up PGA Tour professionals in the Open Championship will be on average greater than any other tournament.
1 Like
FYI in my experience the best possible wagers you can make is on no-hope human interest stories to miss the cut. They often go off like -500 to miss the cut and they miss the cut like religion
Nationality props can be great too. You often get -2 or -3 SG golfers going up against someone who is a 0 and the chalk isn’t priced heavy enough
Hopefully your crystal ball is right this time my friend!