Personally going with Poulter and Kaymer this week - hopefully data golf like them too
For Streelman, he has 2 Top 10s, 3 Top 20s and 3 Top 40s in his last 10 events. If you backed him in the Top 10/20/40 markets for those, you will be doing well but his value has tightened since the Charles Schwab.
Vegas is positive T2G in his last six events and in the two events that he was positive for SG Putting, he finished Top 10.
I will be surprised if there is value in the place market for either of them given that.
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Ah, I’ve misread it then. Thought you were suggesting their recent form was rubbish.
We won’t be on Kaymer for sure; Poulter, possibly.
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Kaymer might turn into a Leishman / Higgo
Haha, maybe… Leishman is a good comparison player. But I think we are correct about Higgo – he’s not going to be very good 
. His year so far is really not that impressive; he has been putting the lights out.
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Is there anything factored in for links golf in the Scottish Open predictions? Some of the PGA players DG is recommending seem to have little to no experience on courses like they’ll see this week.
Turns out it’s Steve Stricker week 
. We have already made an explicit adjustment to Champions Tour data to ensure we aren’t adjusting it incorrectly (I was worried about airing on the side of assigning field strengths that were too strong). Briefly, we just did a simple backtest to see how player’s performed relative to expectation as a function of what fraction of the rounds that went into their prediction were from the Champions Tour.
Stricker’s baseline is good but it’s mainly the course-specific bump doing the work this week. Proceed with caution…
No, there is not. We have course fit adjustments from the Renaissance Club but no general links adjustment. We’ll probably have something for next week, e.g. a general Open Championship fit adjustment.
We are on the Favourites at the Scottish which in general I like, as I think the overall skill of the European Tour is overvalued… but I think we’d all agree Links golf tends to compress the skill distribution, so it could be a bit iffy.
Thanks, I’d agree with both of these points (European Tour standard heavily over-rated, treading carefully with the likes of Conners and Burns who as far as I can see have barely played links golf, let alone had any good results).
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I’ll start another thread for the Scottish Open and we can continue our discussion there.
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Thanks for your encouragement, yeah there are ups and downs but I just fire a few dozen more bets and cross my fingers. Mostly I’m sweating the prices and not the results.
My Top 20 wagers for the week, much thanks to Datagolf. I managed to win the race this week. Not nearly as optimistic about next week.
| Golfer | Wagered_Odds | Current_Odds | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stricker | 3.300 | 2.900 | 0.38 |
| Stanley | 3.600 | 3.200 | 0.34 |
| Howell III | 4.100 | 3.500 | 0.30 |
| Bramlett | 7.000 | 5.500 | 0.18 |
| D Lee | 7.000 | 6.000 | 0.18 |
| M Thompson | 7.000 | 4.200 | 0.18 |
| Streb | 7.000 | 5.900 | 0.18 |
| Whaley | 7.000 | 5.900 | 0.18 |
| Laird | 7.500 | 4.600 | 0.16 |
| Burgoon | 8.000 | 7.000 | 0.16 |
| Dufner | 8.000 | 6.500 | 0.16 |
| Brown | 9.500 | 8.000 | 0.14 |
| Long | 9.500 | 5.900 | 0.14 |
| Sabbatini | 9.500 | 7.000 | 0.14 |
| Schenk | 9.500 | 5.900 | 0.14 |
| Landry | 10.000 | 10.000 | 0.12 |
| Smalley | 10.500 | 9.500 | 0.12 |
| Villegas | 10.500 | 7.000 | 0.12 |
| Lahiri | 11.000 | 8.000 | 0.12 |
| Malnati | 11.000 | 9.500 | 0.12 |
| Seiffert | 11.000 | 8.000 | 0.12 |
| Teater | 11.000 | 7.000 | 0.12 |
| Oppenheim | 14.000 | 11.000 | 0.10 |
| Shelton | 14.000 | 11.000 | 0.10 |
If I hit 4 of 24 I will finish in the green. As last week showed, it is not easy at all. Still, I gave myself the best possible chance of winning.
In general I don’t see any trends here - throwing darts with longshots and hoping a few hit. I don’t think bombing it off the tee will make as big a difference this week.
I’m finding enough value in other places that I’m avoiding matchups v Kaymer.
Glad to hear that Higgs is just putting well. I’ll start fading him again.
Tournament Props are broken for the John Deere Classic, will they be updated soon?
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Sorry. Didn’t realize this until we were emailed this morning by someone. Not that it matters, but it was a bug caused by the PGA Tour listing a made up flag code for Luke Gannon…
Holy cow anyone been looking at the DK odds this weekend? Literally seems like they are copying and pasting DG odds and adding juice. Literally no value
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DK take their prices from Kambi who use a model that is very similar to Datagolf in concept. Wouldnt expect to see much value in their prices.
One for Matt … when can we expect to get The Open numbers up for next week?
Cheers TR
Actually DK recently switched providers and no longer uses Kambi