Nice summary, Daniel. A couple of my observations:
I didn’t see a shot, but, from ShotTracker, it looks like you can pretty much bomb it on every hole here if you want to. Wilco Nienaber was flexing that power, it might be a good course fit for him and other bombers. In our predictions of players’ “true driving distance”, which is estimated in the same way as our skill levels based off total strokes-gained, we have Wilco as the longest in the world at +30 yards relative to an avg PGA pro. Bryson and Cameron Champ are both around +25. (These estimates only use the 2 officially measured drives in each round.)
I was tracking the Lahiri/Harrington/Kaufman 3-ball for a bit today – it must be so brutal for Kaufman to play like that. He’s completely lost it off the tee, looks like some version of the full-swing yips to me. Hopefully he can pull a Brendon Todd and recover from that someday. I’m not betting on that, though.
If it’s a bomber’s course, then it might be good for DJ!
FYI, I bet on DJ to pull off the Palmetto/US Open Double at 130-1. Probably a sucker bet but I felt it was the best way to bet DJ to win at Torrey. Let’s see how this plays out!
Round 2 report.
Course shows its teeth in Round 2. I do expect the course to play easier due to less winds, rain, and lift-clean-and-cheat possibly being implemented over the weekend. I personally love seeing the mudballs but I don’t make the rules. I expect the winning score to be around -15.
This tournament really looks like Dustin Johnson’s to lose, despite the double bogey on 18. Hadley and Lee figure to fade over the weekend, possibly out of the top 10. A big bunch in the 3-6 under range however, and anyone who goes low and gets to -10 by the end of round 3 should have a live shot on Sunday. If Dustin Johnson wants to gain a stranglehold of this tournament it’s time for him to shoot a 67 or thereabouts and grab a multiple stroke lead.
Might as well throw darts on who might go low tomorrow.
Report on the players mentioned before the tournament.
Brooks Koepka - mailed it in as expected and will have two extra days to rest his knee.
Tommy Fleetwood - poor round 2 means he will have to go low on the weekend to finish in the top 20.
Brandt Snedeker - good round 2 gets him into the weekend. Not expecting much beyond that.
Keith Mitchell - misses the cut after a poor round 2.
Garrick Higgo - Still in contention! Very good chance of getting that Top 20 that will send him into the Top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. He will be aiming higher though. He has everything to play for this weekend - stay tuned.
Hopefully Higgo shoots a 66 tomorrow! If he does we’ll have an interesting conversation on his chances on Sunday.
No matter what happens tomorrow, surely he’s in a position where he will be able to max out on his 8 sponsor’s exemptions on the PGA Tour. Obviously he needs to do something with them.
Higgo is third in the event shots gained tee to green.
The three South Africans are going well so may be condition based. Surprised Nianenber isn’t gaining more shots off the tee with his length. Only +1.2 for the event.
My hopes rest almost entirely on Tain Lee, I have him at strong prices in the Top 10/20/40 markets. A collapse from here would be tough to take but his scoring appears to be based on a solid long game rather than streaky putting so I am hopeful.
Let’s go Tain! I got him to win outright 250-1, top5 and top10 all after r1. Also got him over English in round3 +240. DK def didn’t show any respect for Tain. @Obgeoff just wondering where did u bet those?
Boylesports. 81 for Top 10, 31 for Top 20 and 13 for Top 40 in decimal format. 30 units profit if he does manage to cling on to a Top 10 spot. I’m still calculating his buffer to Top 40 though being the pessimist that I am.
Round 3 recap.
Chesson Hadley with the big surprise, but it’s Saturday. I fully expect him to lose his lead tomorrow. Anything is possible but I would not be looking to back him at -125. With that said, who wins? (If not Chesson Hadley)
English is the obvious answer here although the value is gone at +300. You’re not going to win over the long run trying to beat 20-30% juice in the win market barring some big mistakes. The mistakes seem to get smaller as the tournament goes on and by the end of round 3 the juice just takes over.
Very disappointing from Dustin Johnson today. He did not look comfortable on the practice greens and he seemed to carry that to the golf course. He did the last thing I expected him to do, but I guess that’s why they make him play instead of handing him the trophy after 36 holes. He still has a puncher’s chance but that is all. Making up multiple strokes on English is a tough enough a task, let alone having to make up another few on Hadley.
If you’re playing the win market I’m afraid it’s Hadley or bust. I’m guessing he shoots 2 or 3 over tomorrow and we’ll see if anyone can catch him.
Higgo watch:
He did not quite shoot the 66 he would have needed to be in the thick of things, but a 68 will serve quite nicely and he faces the biggest round of his professional career. This is the week he enters the top 50 in the World Rankings and we’ll be seeing him in all the big tournaments in the near future.
If he strikes jackpot tomorrow I think Higgo-mania starts in full force and he goes off at 50-1 to win the US Open. (And yes, I’ll bet on him at that price)
I’ve seen it too many times, players performing way above their heads before crashing on Sunday.
He’s looked like a -1.5 SG player all year and it’s been 2 years since he put 4 solid rounds together. Shooting 2 or 3 over on this course would be a normal round for him under most circumstances.
He could surprise tomorrow and things like this do happen a few times a year. If he can shoot somewhere around the course average or 1 stroke above that he’s your likely winner. His baseline ability suggests he will not succeed, however.
To be fair it’s unfair to single out Hadley when there were 5 other players who had a great chance to match or better Higgo’s clubhouse score but imploded down the stretch. Maybe it’s just a tough golf course.
With the win, Higgo-mania officially begins! I will be betting on him to win the US Open at any price (probably around 50-1). No price is too high when you’re dealing with a potential superstar.
I got Higgo at 90-1, there has to be value at this price. You don’t have to wait for Datagolf projections this time. DanielSong39 projection says get on him quick before the price goes down.
Unfortunately for Hadley he was just going to shoot the score required to lose. He had no idea where his ball was going down the stretch, his subconscious just knew exactly how many strokes he had to throw away to ensure he lost. In my own non professional golfing life I have experienced this awful feeling. Not sure how you possibly come back from this but I sincerely hope he gets another chance to pull out a win.
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