I am a betting man not a golf man so i have no personal view (or much understanding) on this but have read more than once this tournament will favour distance over accuracy, and also read more than once that it will favour accuracy over distance!
I think the course will be a birdiefest that will favor longshots and the true value may be found in the medium-to-short inaccurate hitters who are solid in other parts of the game. The prices are down on the big bombers so I think the value is gone.
Agree 100%, i argued this with the exchange in question at the time as they were giving non nonsensical excuses to explain it, rather than accepting it was greed and short termism
Interested in taking a stab with Hideki Matsuyama after Round 1. He has average length and distance but is solid in every other part of the game. He can make birdies in bunches.
Not a perfect fit but checks enough boxes to have me interested. If he shoots 66 or so and goes off at around +1000 Iâll have to think about this one.
Poor finish for Matsuyama so no go.
Lots of longshots near the top of the leaderboard. Davis Thompson for the win?
I think one or more of the longshots at -6 or better holds on for a Top 5. Big prices on Davis Thompson, Hagy, and Lewis to finish in the Top 5, might be worth the fliers.
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Round 2 update. The bombers are doing pretty well.
Bryson DeChambeau - MC
Will Zalatoris - T21, 4 behind
Jason Kokrak - T21, 4 behind
Garrick Higgo - T34, 5 behind
Keegan Bradley - T34, 5 behind
Matthew Wolff - T14, 3 behind
Bubba Watson - T63, 7 behind
Probably looking at a Top 10 and a couple of Top 20âs among the bunch.
The favorites among the non-bombers did terrible (Simpson MC, Matsuyama WD, Reed T63).
Juice is really high on the outrights and the T5/T10 markets. 2-balls are notorious for their high juice as well and all you can really do is to hope that the bookmaker makes a mistake. In general the juice seems to increase as the week goes on and this forces me to focus more on the matchups.
Top 20 Market Update. Great start to the week but there are 2 rounds remaining.
| Golfer | Odds | Units | P(win) | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghim | 4.6 | 0.22 | 0.359 | 0.363 |
| Howell III | 4.6 | 0.22 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Griffin | 5.9 | 0.18 | 0.384 | 0.408 |
| Jones | 5.9 | 0.18 | 0.290 | 0.308 |
| Dahmen | 6 | 0.18 | 0.156 | 0.168 |
| Varner III | 6.5 | 0.16 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Hahn | 8 | 0.14 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Lebioda | 8 | 0.14 | 0.389 | 0.436 |
| Werenski | 8 | 0.14 | 0.472 | 0.529 |
| Bramlett | 8.5 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| N Taylor | 8.5 | 0.12 | 0.163 | 0.166 |
| D Lee | 9.5 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Frittelli | 9.5 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| McCarthy | 9.5 | 0.12 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Nesmith | 9.5 | 0.12 | 0.146 | 0.166 |
| Whaley | 9.5 | 0.12 | 0.240 | 0.274 |
| Chappell | 10 | 0.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Piercy | 10 | 0.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Sloan | 11 | 0.1 | 0.107 | 0.118 |
| An | 12 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.103 |
| Dufner | 12 | 0.1 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Burgoon | 13 | 0.08 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Schenk | 13 | 0.08 | 0.257 | 0.267 |
| Duncan | 15 | 0.08 | 0.283 | 0.340 |
| Hagy | 15 | 0.08 | 0.403 | 0.484 |
| Lahiri | 15 | 0.08 | 0.116 | 0.139 |
| McCumber | 15 | 0.08 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Pak | 15 | 0.08 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| C Thompson | 101 | 0.02 | 0.027 | 0.055 |
| Total | 4.323 | |||
| Units | 3.48 | |||
| ROI | 1.242 |
I am hoping to hit 4 out of 29 wagers. This puts into perspective just how hard it is just to hit a T20. Itâs very easy to go 20-30 wagers without hitting a single one.
Maybe they are only adding juice to your odds / players youâve backed, Daniel. Iâm going to check Fanduelâs open/close after weâve archived this weekâs odds, but I donât recall noticing our value (which is just scraped from their site without using a login) decrease this drastically as the week goes on.
Round 3 update.
T5, T10, and T20 markets are unbettable. Hard to beat 40% juice.
Win markets arenât much better, the juice is too high. Niemann has the best chance but I believe his chances are under 30%. Troy Merritt (among others) have a great chance of going low and making Niemann shoot in the mid-60âs to keep up.
At this stage I think you need to focus on matchups.
Thank you for all your responses! Hopefully weâll have another good round of discussions for the John Deere!
Looks like the bomber narrative will continue as Cameron Davis gets it done. Several other bombers did well, as Bubba Watson bounced back nicely with a Top 10 and Kokrak and Bradley finished with Top 20âs. Several short hitters played well as did longshots as the birdiefest worked its magic. It really is a bettorâs paradise.
I hope this thread helped you make money! As for me itâs all about the money and I will praise any golfer who makes me money and throw any golfer under the bus who loses me money. (As for DeChambeau, he has issues other than that caddie thing. He hits every single club off-line. He hits 5-10 bad shots every round; canât put together good scores that way).
Bryson is still playing close to the best golf of his career (SG-wise). I agree his game looks awful, though. But gaining more than 1 stroke/round off the tee gives you a big head start.
Are you looking to bet inplay there?
The books can be pretty slow to react to the action at times, i imagine more so on the place markets than even just outright markets.
I take it win and place are separate there rather than offering each way bets? I wonder if you might get that as UK books try and muscle in on the US online markets⌠or hopefully they wonât learn to stop taking each way bets here.
Iâm going to assume that we never get rid of each-way betting, especially with half the bookies competing to see who can give the most e/w places in majors. If dodgy e/w horse racing hasnât killed it off, golf certainly wonât.
Yeah it might work out they offer it in the US as an easy means of copying the UK marketing.
Hills could offer 8 places and best promise on the top 10⌠then not accept stakes on the top 10 etc.
Golf wonât kill eway off but seeing the US markets might. Although horses are tote style in the states arent they so they wonât get their huge overrounds on the win markets and 98% of each way markets.
I think if golf became win only a lot of punters wouldnât bother any more, and ultimately the books would make less because the volume of money would be so far reduced.
Casual punters would have little to no interest in anybody apart from the top of the market, and people with half a clue about value betting would know the players would be bigger on the exchange.
Hi whenâs the new release times thanks for Scottish and John Deere
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