Adri Arnaus wins in Spain entering 4th round @ DG odds 279x (+27800)

Starting the day 7 behind leader Ollie Bekker after a 2nd round collapse nearly missing the cut after a horrendous last 6 holes, he managed to shoot 65 and win after playoff against Bekker.

Plenty of semi chokes up there. Bekker, Canter, Molinari, Meronk, Wiesberger all playing bad and won’t better their under pressure values.

Books plenty short against the DG odds but using the DG odds as measuring tool, what other example of upsets do we have odds wise entering the 4th round?

Paul Lawrie came from 10 back with 18 holes to go in the 1999 British Open

Lots of near misses, Sabbatini in the Olympics would have been a doozy (My calculations had him at ~3000-1 entering the final round)

Here are two (very early) examples of big comebacks in the live model era. (One of them was only an almost-big-comeback). I haven’t actually looked at our data to find the biggest comebacks, I just remembered we had this post.

Actually I’d like to see the reverse too, the biggest final round chokes ever

I remember DJ, Schwartzel, and Kaymer with some epic collapses
Morikawa in the Hero World Championship was a doozy as well
Norman was the most famous example but I think he was only about ~80%
Rory was even smaller, around ~60%

By the way I gave Arnaus a 0.5% chance, pretty close to Data Golf

Books had him at like 66-1 so I passed, LOL

I believe the double whammy of List at the Farmers and Hovland in Dubai early this year were both pretty absurd entering Rd4.

Gavins had pretty sick odds going into Round 4 when he won last season at the ISPS Handa Invitational, his odds must have been even worse than Arnaus

Could it happen again today? Seems to be significant for the Euro Tour. Weak field and everyone in contention choking. This time it’s swede Soderberg coming from behind at the Belfry (beautiful course btw) and seemingly posting a good score in the club house. Needs atleast one more birdie though on last 2 holes. One par 5. 208x coming in on

It won’t happen but man is there some nervous golf being played by the top groups. Last pairing +5 combined after 11. Top 3 pairings +9 combined. Top 5 +15. And last 7 pairs +21 combined for 14 players. Average of +1.5 with course being played +0.44 as I wright. Some of the easier holes left to play though.

Minus nine might do it. Chokers where ever you look.

Oh Ramsay… that hurt.

Insane action. Olesen down to 2.2% thru 15. Finished eagle, birdie just like yesterday. Combined like 60 feet on those two putts to turn it around and win outright.

Love him forever after seeing him still take his time with the kids afterwards signing stuff. Great character.

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Olesen had a poor round but man he stepped it up the last two holes. The last 6 shots he hit were all terrific

Well, I suppose we have a new record :smiley:

I did not expect Samooja that’s for sure

That was literally a 1 in 1000 round for him

Good luck this weekend Mr. Arnaus! :stuck_out_tongue:

I’m predicting another finn, Sami Valimaki to be the next with an incredible run on the 4th round. He seems to step up everytime when it mathers, with good scoring ability. And he’s young.