Just wanted to get som talk going about Joakim Lagergren. Pretty extreme to have 4 of his 7 best OWGR performances on this tournament. Terrible performance last week of course. But will step up now, like always? Seems like the books already adjusted way too much either way?
Also curious how DG handles a player like this with these circumstances. Even if the sample size is small per se it’s still obvious he loves this tournament.
And in general, any other examples of players with extreme course fits?
Zach Johnson at the John Deere comes to mind. Tiger basically everywhere?
Books seem to be having fits with the multi-course set up. Bet365 offering lots of value on FRL bets (assuming Carnoustie is in fact the hardest course, as historical data indicates). Betcris also offering round matchups between golfers not on the same course (not sure if that was intentional) and don’t seem to be adjusting for course difficulty differences.
And they are still heavily exposed towards you. Feels weird.
Such an intense week. Thick green all over the place on both tours. Hope this is the week that turn things around. Been crushed on especially matchups for what feels like forever.
Yeah, it’s been a rough 2 months or so.
Carnoustie is typically 1.5-2 shots harder than the other two courses, so I don’t know what Cris is doing with those prices.
Seems like they are not exposed after all. I just went by the latest update on here which was a couple of hours ago but I see on BookMaker that all messed up R1 matchups are gone now. Still, it took very long time with a couple of odds slashes on all of them so they should’ve been aware something was off. But seems like they are not interested in DGs odds then.
I honestly wasn’t sure if it was a bug at first when I looked through the numbers yesterday
I think Cris mostly moves lines based on action received?
Tomorrow looks horrendous weather wise. Carnoustie scoring over/under 76?
Only if we had this kind of weather for the Open Championship
(Nah, they would have stopped play. Can’t show bogeys on TV)
Datagolf making mansell 1.6 for the win. Plenty of money available at 2.12 on betfair exchange
Very pleasing seeing LIV trash Bekker having a horrendous day when I have zero positions on him.
Standard DG showing value on golfers in the lead of that calibre. Same with Hubbard tonight. There’s been some discussions about the phenomen on here before. Don’t remeber if it ever was back tracked but I believe the conclusion was that one should keep firing on the leader in situations like this. However, when it differs so much vis a vis the exchange I would think twice. Probably still fire, but not as hard as the odds difference suggests. When it comes to soft books it’s easier to motivate some sort of narrative about recreational gamblers habits.
I did my own analysis and found that Mansell should be about -110, books had him in the -110 to -125 range so I escaped
BetOnline offered 2-way odds of -120 to win and -110 to not win. I passed
Not sure why Betfair had him at 2.12. Only if there was a golf exchange in the US. I would have a ball
2.12 might be high but with the commission they can almost have zero margin. Don’t know exactly hos much the commission is but used to be 5% on net winnings and some sort of bonus system based on turnover(?). But either way it’s a factor to consider. With -110 as correct you fire though
It’s 3% on Orbit (Betfair white label). And you can try to negotiate a better rate with your agent/broker.
Unfortunately Orbit does not accept customers from the United States either, oh well
I was looking for something similar to TradeSports (RIP) with 0-100 markets and frozen worst case loss. That way you can short multiple golfers and every time you open a new short position you free up money.
Sporttrade is similar to that but it’s only available in New Jersey and only on iOS mobile devices (for now).
I am re-doing the work we’ve done on pressure as I write this… honestly I think at the end of the day you have to use your judgement with these. For example, the last 3 years on the DP World Tour, final round leaders have played horribly (like -0.8 below expectation or something). But in the 5 years prior to that, they barely underperformed. There are only ~40 tournaments a year, so only 40 final round leaders to evaluate. So even over many years, the sample size remains relatively small (for golf performance analysis purposes).
I am pretty sure I can learn a lot from watching guys play a final round near the lead. I watched most of the final round yesterday and Moller looked horrible to me even though he scraped together a decent round. Fox looked really solid for most of the day, you could see the confidence in his ball-striking. But that chip he hit on 17 was pretty shaky. Obviously it’s easy to be misled by the eye test as well, but I definitely would lean on some personal judgement when betting on final round leaders. Overall I do think the market undervalues them though, even though that hasn’t been true recently.