Australian PGA Championship Sweat Thread

The value this week on this event is just insane.

All the favorites are massively undervalued, I assume most of us here are heavy on the guys at the top.

This is going to make for a very sweaty tournament. Where’s the T20 only guy who 100x’d his roll this year? He’s going to be all in!

Good luck us…

Haha, hopefully you didn’t bet too much of your bankroll! There are probably some important variables that are omitted this week… the style of golf they are playing is pretty different (I think… not sure exactly what Victoria is like). Could be a bit of a British Open situation (skill distribution is compressed, high variance).

Perhaps an apples to oranges comparison but the ringers killed it in the Dunlop Phoenix tournament against a much stronger field

Well we’ll see. I still think profit is likely

Yeah, it should be profitable – much preferred to books copying 98% of the odds. Just wouldn’t bet the house on those edges.

In for a penny in for a pound!

I looked over the course layout and listened to the press conference from Adam Scott and Cam Smith.

RQGC has generous fairways and very sloped greens, not many flat spots to land the ball so approach shots will be key. That lends itself well to the longer hitters who will have shorter clubs in their hands and the top guys who can actually hit where they want most of the time.

Greens are grainy but very firm and fast and getting firmer/faster so grain wont have as much influence as it could, this should help as well.

Weather looks decent, as it should in Queensland, gets windier throughout the day however its never really that strong.

Honestly I think a course fit would have just benefited the top guys and lowered the a lot of the lesser golfers even more. Pretty happy with it. Huffing the hopium heavily right now.


Where is the model? I can only find it under custom models section, so is it only available for scratch plus members? (no issues if it is, just want to make sure i’m not missing something)

@matt_courchene sorry Im sure this has been answered before. Do the odds on the custom model page account for dead heat for top_20, top_10 and top_5 columns? Thanks!

Yes, odds always account for dead heat unless indicated otherwise.


This week I applied an Australian bias in what value I’d be willing to take for a place bet, and completely ignored the lads who hadn’t played in over a month (Smith + Leishman), as well as the players who had played the last two weeks on Euro Tour in South Africa then Dubai (Fox, Rasmus, Min Woo, Meronk).

I can’t say definitively why this event has historically favoured the Australians so heavily (seriously, load up any past leaderboard anf the foreigners will have underperformed), but I do think jetlag and significance of event (this is an end of the season knockabout for the European lads, this is the most important event in Australia for the locals) play a factor, as well as the obvious course experience considerations you’d get every week.

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Yeah, only in custom model section.

Yea I think the jet lag is a serious negative. A. Scott even said so himself “hope my 6am tee time is a positive with the jet lag”

Australian Open is next week
If this doesn’t work out I’ll try again next week

Hopefully that is the one that goes into the Sub Tour and the South African Open is chosen for the full coverage

(Actually I’d love to see Sub Tours for both but I can’t get too greedy)

After round 1:
Doesn’t look terrible so far

Long way to go

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Herbert pulled out with a bad back, fuuuuuuuck

That afternoon wave got hammered, except for Cam Smith… Yikes

Bad day 2, looks like a losing week
We try again next week!

Most golf fans agree that players of certain nationalities tend to over or under-perform at events hosted in certain countries. There are several plausible reasons this could be true: a home-country effect — Australians playing well at events hosted in Australia, for example;

Really wish I had revisited this blog post before this tournament

Small sample size but I was definitely swayed by the DP World Tour Championship and the Dunlop Phoenix Open

Ringers just killed it

I felt the “home course” advantage had been reduced for several reasons:
(1) Travel technology improvements, effects of fatigue and jetlag greatly lessened
(2) Increasing disparity in talent between Australasian Tour and the top 50 players
(3) Several of these ringers are Australian and are very familiar with the course!

In any case I think Cameron Smith gets it done this week. Let’s see if he can get the double next week (I will be betting on him again)

By the way the course is not a pushover. Good to see

To be fair, the leaderboard does look extremeley similar to every other tournament they’ve had here.

We knew the players who had done a lot of air miles recently, particularly the Europeans, were likely to struggle. The interesting thing is how well the Asian players have done this week, with 5 out of 6 in the top 20.

The other conundrum is what you’re planning on doing next week, when everyone at the top of the market who underperformed this week are probably going to be massive value again, except this time with no jetlag excuse.

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Got crushed, that’s life, I’ll live to fight another day

All of the talking points are valid

Maybe I was fooled by recency bias. Also home field advantage has disappeared in North American pro and college sports and Americans had absolutely crushed it in the Open Championships and other overseas events so I thought the effects of travel and jet lag had been reduced considerably

I’ll try again next week, if I drop another bundle oh well

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