I’ve sized the wagers so that the risk amount + win amount = 0.5% of bankroll
Then I fire away with as many +EV bets as I can without worrying about overexposure
This seems to work pretty well
I am glad you found it helpful.
Also on step 3 you wrote “only bet the remaining amount to get you to the desired fraction of your bankroll”. Is this remaining amount to get you to the desired win amount or bet amount? Intuitively I would think win amount but I cant confidently claim that is correct
Sorry about that-- I should have been a bit more clear here: I meant,
- calculate the fraction of your bankroll that you would want on the top 5 if it were the only bet offered, and you were not worried about correlation.
- subtract the amount you have implicitly placed on it through the top 20 bet.
- Bet this remaining difference (your original desired amount - the amount you already have implicitly bet) on the top5
My day job is preventing me from working through an example at the moment, but if faced with top 40, top 20, top 10, top 5, to win:
- Start with the top 40
- Use the odds offered on the other bets to break it into 20-40,10-20, 5-10, 2-4, 1st
- Use the procedure I outlined above
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