Did the “Brooks Bump” make it into the model this week?
Thanks much Will! Could you elaborate why it’s only .34, compared to the “Inside the Numbers” post with 1.54 (if I remember correctly)? Do you think a manual adjustment is still warranted?
It’s partly because when we actually looked at the difference between Brook’s predicted skill at majors (according to our model) and compared that to his subsequent performance, the discrepancy was only about 1.1 strokes per round. This can be explained by BK having good course fit at majors (which our predicted skill takes into account) and also because he was often somewhat ‘in form’ heading into majors, which made his skill higher at majors than if you were to just take an average across all years (as we did when coming up with the 1.54 number you mention).
However the bigger reason is simply that you don’t expect the full magnitude of the differences to persist into the future. Because golf is skill + luck, we will observe regression to the mean. That is, some of the difference between major and regular PGA Tour performance is just noise, and therefore players with large positive performance gaps (like BK) will be expected to overperform less in future majors. Similarly, those with large negative gaps will be expected to underperform less than they have been in future majors. Exactly how much regression to the mean should be applied is an empirical question… which can be answered by using past majors to analyze the relationship between a golfer’s major-regular performance gap (before the event starts) and their subsequent performance.
Sounds good, thanks guys!
FYI, I played Koepka to miss the cut
If he hits a bad shot I expect him to grab his knee, limp around the course, and show expressions of pure agony
(Then if he hits a good shot he’ll jump up and down and pump his fist)
He’s playing the role of the heel to a tilt, let’s see when he pulls the heel-face turn
These takes are hilarious
If you’ve watched pro wrestling you know exactly what’s going on with the Bryson-Brooks “feud” and the off-the-course kayfabe.
I actually would not be surprised if several of these “run-ins” are scripted by the Tour.
What does that have to do with missing the cut?
Well if he wasn’t on his game and he was around the cut line there was a good chance he’d mail it in instead of grinding to make the cut
And add in a few theatrics while he was at it
It’s all consistent with his character (also his knee condition, which is mostly recovered but probably still not 100% until next season)
Narrative narrative narrative. Doesn’t really go very far with betting, but you do you buddy
Actually Brooks has missed quite a few cuts this year and he has limped to the finish on a number of those
Please check the title of this thread