I had Smalley, after around 3, with the option to cashout at 10x my investment. Could’ve been 25x my of the $$$ finishing in Top 5 after Round 4.

DG had him 53% finishing in Top 5. I rolled with the percentages and lost it all.

No regrets, but need advice.

Do you take the early money and run?

Don’t know the math in this case but it’s almost always not +EV to cash out. Not dissimilar to the Rufus hedging conversation however, I guess if your cash out was life changing money you would consider it.

Are you hoping to win one time or over the long run? That goes a long in way in deciding whether or not you should cash out.

Either way, this is the basic formula to use.

(Amount you could win without cashing out) x (Data Golf win probability in decimal form)

Is this amount greater than the cash out amount? If it is, you’re better off riding it out. If not, cash out.

Also, if you cash out, your golfer will win. If you don’t, they will lose. :upside_down_face:

Thank you kindly for the formulas and responses!

According to the formula provided, I made the right decision.

After watching Mito Pereria’s collapse at the PGA, I was wondering how to determine cashout value.

Best of luck everyone this weekend!