Hypothetical Q around player variance in scoring

Weekly Discussion
#1

Do players have an adjustment for scoring ability/going low ability on any given day?

For example lets say we had two players:
Player 1 always shoots even par
Player 2 shoots either -5 or +5

These players are both rated the same in overall scoring ability but Player 2 can go -20 under par over four days where as Player 1 can not.

Does this show up in professional golf? Player 2 would have a chance to win a tournament where as Player 1 almost never could.

Personally IRL I am Player 2 (HC. 4) and one of my best friends is Player 1. He never goes super low, where as I shoot even or +15 :frowning:

#2

Sort of like how Dustin Johnson shot 81-85 one week then went -17 the next week over the first two days. Cant remember when or what tournament but it was something like that!

#3

This is likely accounted for with the Standard Deviation for each player. When you run a monte carlo simulation (which is I believe what DG does), you need to input basically a baseline estimate for each player as well as a standard deviation.

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