If peak Tiger Woods was playing today (Custom Model)

I changed the worst player in last weeks PGA Tour tournament, Ben Cook, to have the same strokes gained as peak Tiger Woods (+4.09) to see how he would do.

57% chance to win…


Pretty ridiculous. Made me look back on his career to see whether that even made sense in context of his actual win %s. I don’t even really remember this run at the end of 2006 (he won Dubai as well):


Tough that we never really got to appreciate it. Would love to see some historical odds on Tiger, can’t imagine the bookies did too well back then. No point in betting him EW at 3:1!

I remember seeing somewhere that he was even money or worse to win a few times.

My favorite thing about the golf stats/analytics literature is that people will come up with one way or another of measuring how good players are, look at their long term or short term performance or whatever, and the conclusion is always the same: Tiger was way better than people even thought he was.


Ya he was a fave vs the field in the Masters. Absolutely bonkers.

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He was even better in 1999-2000

In one stretch he won 17 of 30 events including 4 of 5 majors

By the way in 2006 he did have a quarterfinal loss in the World Match Play after 5 straight victories

I remember him going off at -300 to win an event after grabbing the first round lead. That was wild (he won)

Not sure what it was like to watch Byron Nelson in 1945 but this was about as close as it gets

I remember when Rory won 3 times in a row, winning the British Open/WGC-Bridgestone/PGA Championship

That got a ton of attention

Tiger won 3 or more worldwide events in a row 5 separate times in his career

Just for kicks I put in Tiger’s peak (Post 2004) rating in the Challenge Tour this week

Winning probability: 85.9%

I guess nothing is 100% LOL

9/13 update:
For kicks I tried Tiger again this week. Interesting week since we have good players split 3 ways.

I replaced the weakest player in the field with post 2004 peak Tiger.

PGA Tour - Fortinent Championship: 55.4%
DP World Tour - Italian Open: 57.1%
LIV Tour - Chicago: 47.3%
Challenge Tour - Open de Portugal: 84.2%
Champions Tour - Sanford International: 82.5%

Interesting to see that the Champions Tour is stronger than the Challenge Tour (LOL)

Tiger’s 11-year peak. I think 53.2% in Top-3 is my favorite.