Hi all. Been an avid DG user for many many years. When the cards flipped a few minutes I expected Lucas Glover to rate a little better. Per the Course Fit Tool this is a track that emphasizes accuracy OTT (Glover’s strength) and sees less strokes gained from putting and distance (his weaknesses.)
Glover is 48th in DG rankings. I’m confused why someone like Chris Gotterup is rated higher by the model for this tournament? Gotterup is ranked 68th overall and is someone who’s long and not accurate off the tee.
Anyone have any thoughts? @matt_courchene @will_courchene ??
1 Like
It seems like there are a couple of things contributing to this.
While Glover is getting a positive course fit adjustment this week, he’s also getting a couple negative adjustments. Gotterup gets a negative course fit adjustment, but he has been gaining most of his shots through ball striking recently, which gives him a hefty positive bump.
It’s also worth noting that the weighting of past rounds used for the rankings is a bit longer-term than the one used for the predictive model, with the model focusing more on short-term form (this is described on this page: Model Talk | Off-season model tweaks (2024)). Gotterup’s recent form has been strong while Glover’s recent form is less strong.
Lastly, Gotterup has slightly higher variance than Glover. Note that Gotterup has a higher probability of winning than Glover but a lower probability of making the cut and very similar top 20 probability.
7 Likes
Great summary, I think that sums it up perfectly
2 Likes
You can also view the adjustments to skill @hothandluke is referencing here: Skill Decompositions | Data Golf
2 Likes