# Kelly Criterion

What % of Kelly do people use for
Top 20
Outrights
Matchups
3 Balls

I used 5% for top 20s this week

EDIT: I read this wrong â€¦ I thought you were asking what EV % threshold before using Kelly
There are EV thresholds I use:
T20 - 8%
Outright -20%
Matchup - 5%
3-ball-7%

In terms of Kelly, I only use it on the Outrights and T20 â€¦ I just have a flat Matchups /3-ball wager

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Always full Kelly baby

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Would you not lose loads ?

Gotta get the blood pumping somehow. Everyone has to find their own way.

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Jokes aside, the answer to your question depends on two things:

1. Your true edge for a given wager and strategy. This is a hard question to answer, and you will not find a good answer in this forum

2. The fractional scheme you have adopted relative to the true edge. This is something that should probably be between 0.1 and 0.5, but depends a bit on your risk preference, how many bets you are making (how far away the long run is at any given time relative to your personal liquidity requirements, etc).

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Full Kelly on Outrights or half ? Or less ?

Less.

Like 0.05-0.2

The problem with full K% is that you are making the assumption that whatever model you are using is taking into account every possible factor that could be modelled and giving a perfect prediction. Obviously this is impossible so therefore we can never use full K%.

The DG model is very robust but when it comes to betting you just want to stay solvent or itâ€™s game over. So you should prefer to take many smaller +EV bets over a few big ones. Thatâ€™s my take on it anyway.

Good luck.

Speaking personallyâ€¦

-Stake to win ÂŁ2k on the win bets, 95% of which will be each way (the odd time you do get an offshore book with stale lines but no each way betting).

-Stake to win ÂŁ500 on the t10/t20 bets as long as theyâ€™re 10% EV or better (will take anything +EV if itâ€™s a book who pays out in full on ties).

-Stake to win ÂŁ150 on h2h/3balls, with at least 5% value (also, it canâ€™t be against one of the players who DG are severely undervaluing compared to the betting market).

The higher staking on the win bit is solely because thatâ€™s what a bookmaker is happy to accept on that market. I can get ÂŁ25 ew on an 80/1 shot, but canâ€™t get ÂŁ500 on him at 4/1 to finish top 20.

I do 10 percent of what Kelly formula says to bet considering my bankroll.
Mainly because I literally would wager over my â€śbankrollâ€ť if at full value, especially if Iâ€™m betting 4 events. Itâ€™s proved to be a percentage that is worth the effort, but not going to kill me if the system busts on a week.

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I run 50% Kelly for T10s and T20s. On particularly juicy weeks I can get a third of my bankroll down and the swings are intense. I donâ€™t do this for a living so I can handle the swings.

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That is what we like to see baby! Epic!

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