Kelly Criterion

What % of Kelly do people use for
Top 20
Outrights
Matchups
3 Balls

I used 5% for top 20s this week

EDIT: I read this wrong … I thought you were asking what EV % threshold before using Kelly
There are EV thresholds I use:
T20 - 8%
Outright -20%
Matchup - 5%
3-ball-7%

In terms of Kelly, I only use it on the Outrights and T20 … I just have a flat Matchups /3-ball wager

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Always full Kelly baby

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Would you not lose loads ?

Gotta get the blood pumping somehow. Everyone has to find their own way.

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Jokes aside, the answer to your question depends on two things:

  1. Your true edge for a given wager and strategy. This is a hard question to answer, and you will not find a good answer in this forum

  2. The fractional scheme you have adopted relative to the true edge. This is something that should probably be between 0.1 and 0.5, but depends a bit on your risk preference, how many bets you are making (how far away the long run is at any given time relative to your personal liquidity requirements, etc).

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Full Kelly on Outrights or half ? Or less ?

Less.

Like 0.05-0.2

The problem with full K% is that you are making the assumption that whatever model you are using is taking into account every possible factor that could be modelled and giving a perfect prediction. Obviously this is impossible so therefore we can never use full K%.

The DG model is very robust but when it comes to betting you just want to stay solvent or it’s game over. So you should prefer to take many smaller +EV bets over a few big ones. That’s my take on it anyway.

Good luck.

Speaking personally…

-Stake to win £2k on the win bets, 95% of which will be each way (the odd time you do get an offshore book with stale lines but no each way betting).

-Stake to win £500 on the t10/t20 bets as long as they’re 10% EV or better (will take anything +EV if it’s a book who pays out in full on ties).

-Stake to win £150 on h2h/3balls, with at least 5% value (also, it can’t be against one of the players who DG are severely undervaluing compared to the betting market).

The higher staking on the win bit is solely because that’s what a bookmaker is happy to accept on that market. I can get £25 ew on an 80/1 shot, but can’t get £500 on him at 4/1 to finish top 20.

I do 10 percent of what Kelly formula says to bet considering my bankroll.
Mainly because I literally would wager over my “bankroll” if at full value, especially if I’m betting 4 events. It’s proved to be a percentage that is worth the effort, but not going to kill me if the system busts on a week.

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I run 50% Kelly for T10s and T20s. On particularly juicy weeks I can get a third of my bankroll down and the swings are intense. I don’t do this for a living so I can handle the swings.

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That is what we like to see baby! Epic!

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