Hey DG guys,
Does the live model and between-round updates take weather into account? For instance, when Sepp was EV after R2 yesterday, would that have considered that that he was in the late wave with incoming nasty weather today? Thanks.
Yes, weather in future rounds is accounted for in the live model (and associated Scratch tools).
But we weren’t projecting weather to make this much of a difference (early wind was projected at ~10mph, later winds at ~17mph). It is tricky because at some courses 5-10mph can make a 2-3 shot difference, but at most courses it’s 0.5-1 stroke.
edit: it also depends how windy it is, e.g. an increase from 20 to 21mph matters more than an increase from 4 to 5mph. Going from 10-17mph is worth 0.7 strokes in our forecasts.
edit2: we do tend to show value on relatively inexperienced players in the lead, especially when its a multiple-stroke lead. We looked into whether we overvalue leaders during this past offseason, and it doesn’t seem like we do.
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Appreciate the quick response as always. I noticed another thread about LPGA… just wanted to put a +1 on that idea while you’re here! 