Major Adjustments for the Masters

Would it be possible to get a brief explanation of how these are calculated. Intrigued by how Cantlay can be improved by his previous performance in majors which has been worse than in-for overall, same with Burns.

Also considering Sandy Lyle and Larry Mize only ever play in these majors (unless you go back more years than I’d think you would) I’m suprised they have an adjustment better as would have assumed it would have already been accounted for in the Course adjustment.


They are calculated the same as course history except for major championships: we get each golfer’s performance relative to expectation (where the expectation includes course fit + history) at majors, and then regress that to the mean (of zero) based on rounds played and a couple other things.

As for Lyle and Mize, I hadn’t noticed that. I guess they are getting positive bumps because they played well at the Masters, and the regression we apply for major performance relative to expectation is different than that applied to course history.

is there a brooks major bump added this time

Yes, the major bump is a column in the skill decomposition.

1 Like