Match play fantasy projections

It seems to me that the fantasy projections for match play are off? I just don’t see how the bottom guy is only projected 30 points less then the top when the bottom guys could literally go 0-3 in the group and get like 15 points. Do the projections take into consideration the ability to play more holes than other golfers?

We are simulating every hole for 20k tournaments.

Your logic seems pretty weak: a top guy could also go 0-3 and get 15 points. It comes down to the probabilities of each player doing so. The best player in the field (Rahm) still only has a 40% chance of winning his group. Further, keep in mind that there is more randomness in head-to-head matches because your opponent on that day may play very poorly, or very well, and this has a huge effect on your outcomes. That dynamic doesn’t exist to the same extent in stroke play.

In the sims Rahm on average played 65.4 holes, while Min Woo Lee (our lowest projection) on average played 53.1 holes.

I think the projections are as good as they can be if you agree with the inputs (i.e. our skill levels for every golfer).

Thanks for the thorough response Matt. My logic was definitely flawed there. Thanks for knocking some sense into me lol