I must be reading the EV wrong on the miss the cut odds screen, but it seems like if a Sportsbook shows a higher odds of missing the cut than DG it should be positive EV for bettors using DG. Where did I get this wrong?
What book/bet are you looking at specifically?
In general, a bet is +EV if DG believes the event to be more likely than the book does. For american odds, this happens when DG’s american odds are less than the american odds offered by the book, since lower values of american odds imply a higher probability of the event occurring.
American odds more specifically represent the amount of money won by wagering $100 (when the odds are positive), and the amount of money you’d have to wager to win $100 (if the odds are negative).
There’s more good info on this in DG’s FAQ under “Betting Tools”: FAQ
Here’s a plot showing the implied probability for a range of american odds:
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Got it, thanks. Using FanDuel, so I see very few positive EV bets on miss the cut. Just surprised there aren’t a few more
Typically you can find the most value right when DG releases their predictions (this week it was Monday at noon, but regular weeks it’s usually early afternoon on Monday). Value tends to go away pretty quickly as books can copy the DG preds and DG bettors can also perhaps contribute to line movement even if the books aren’t directly copying.
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