Now THAT is a massive week

#21

Just ordered it on Amazon!

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#22

So I would be curious to hear yours and others opinions on this but what I do is assign a confidence (always 1 or less, usually between .98 and .995) to probabilities as opposed to using an arbitrary fractional Kelly. I do realize this also sounds quite arbitrary but I do have a logical framework on how to assign the confidence . Intuitively this makes more sense to me but tbh I could be convinced this is not optimal

#23

If you are being serious that is so so epic.

#24

meant to respond to feltidonks-- sorry.

Fortunes formula is a must read.

1 Like
#25

Ha I am being serious, I know that I am probably being way too risky but I have a solid job and other investments so I can always pay my bills in case full kelly depletes my betting BR. Im sure Im being naĂŻve about this subject but why would someone not use full kelly when kelly optimizes BR growth?

#26

Also ordered the book after reading this thread! Another book I recommend is Fooled by randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It’s not about betting per se but should attract those who are prone to rational thinking and logic.

“Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.”

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#27

@madmartigan5 Ive heard very good things, buying it now thanks!

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#28

It is good… if you can deal with Taleb’s arrogance :sweat_smile:.

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#29

Haha, very true…! :smiley:

#30

Ha I heard that too, Ive heard he has very good books but seems incredibly arrogant

#31

Yea, you’ll notice that pretty fast if you follow him on twitter.

#32

Living proof that you can be right and still be an a**hole.

1 Like
#33

After reading it you should google how much money he has made trading since publishing that book.

I’ll give you a hint! It starts with a minus sign. Total fraud.

Book is worth a read anyways.

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