Mullinax at 165-1
Plus massive T20s haul at Barbasol.
Also nice T20 profit at Scottish.
Mullinax at 165-1
Yup! Duncan’s collapse cost a bit but though, but then again got a counter collapse on Svensson to put Whaley in the T5!
nice! DG seems to excel at the opposite field events. I’m sure that numbers tell the story, but it feels like it’s true. Dahmen’s win, this win, the Top 20s … just seems to be extremely dangerous on these secondary tournaments.
I think we have run well on opposite events, but majors have also gone quite well in the last 2 years. Majors could be profitable for different reasons… way more recreational money in the markets. Or we could be over-interpreting noise.
I got killed on the Scottish Open this week, lost money overall
FD copied DG on the Barbasol and had high juice so no money there
But those are the breaks and results may vary from user to user
Fingers crossed for next week’s opposite field event!
Dang, sorry to hear … Yeah, I had 0 options on FD this week. A majority of my numbers were from DraftKings (and a couple from Caesar’s) not long after the data dropped (late Monday?). It definitely goes user to user, because I had very limited EV options in Scottish (no Win bets and a couple T20s – Burmester and Joaquin were the cashes).
The Barbasol showed a plethora of EV options (I only play W and T20 – guessing there were others). Pendrith T20 hit was a miracle. He was -5 on Friday night with a 1 percent chance of making the cut, then climbs into the T20 by Sunday. Just one of those weeks you dream of. DG has helped me get so close to one of these weeks so many times, finally got one.
I could go back and look at my personal numbers for oppos and majors, but that definitely seems correct. The Dahmen and Mullinax wins would make oppos profitably alone, but T20s in those have killed, too.
Oh, I’ve had my share of great weeks, some of them when everyone else was getting killed
Having a great year overall
Expecting a windless birdiefest at St. Andrew’s with -20 being the winning score, that would be the ideal scenario for hitting those T20 bets. You’ll see a lot of mid-level US players near the top of the leaderboard under that scenario
FYI what you do not want is for the superstars to dominate the T20’s
Root against Spieth, Morikawa, Zalatoris, and Thomas since they will be -40% EV bets
It’s not just Data Golf. I use book odds to make adjusted odds after each round and the odds you get on them is just abysmal
This is an interesting discussion.
What do we consider a great week?
A +EV golfer winning outright (or top 10, 20, etc)?
The top players in the pre-tourney model at the top of leaderboard at the end of the tournament?
Mullinax had a 1% chance of winning pre-tourney, according to DG model, but was +EV. In other words, had a 99% of not winning but did.
Well I make a few dozen bets a week
If I make money it’s a good week
Great week would be like a 30% ROI week (They happen sometimes)
I strictly bet the +EV from the model using suggested thresholds and following the Kelly Criterion for sizing. Plus nearly 23 units this week (108% ROI). Biggest week in my two years on the site.
The incredible amount of other data on the site is great for other uses. I’m in the golf business and often use much of the other data for context and I encourage others involved with the major tours to as well (and many do/are starting to). But in this thread, it’s all about projected EV and the results for me (dont kill me for that, Matt!). And this was a doozy.
Only a few dozen? I thought you said you where active
What fractions of kelly
It really doesn’t matter that much, just use common sense / trial and error. I believe there was an older thread going through Kelly stuff. The more bets you are making, the lower the Kelly needs to be to make sure you aren’t putting 75% of your bankroll at risk.
If the bets are not correlated or negatively correlated (unique golfers to top5, arbitrage on matchups etc) you actually can easily have greater than 75% of your bankroll at risk because its very likely you wont lose every bet. I learned from the book “fortunes formula”, highly recommend!
I know im in the minority but I just use full kelly. Anything less is not optimizing for bankroll growth.
What would y’all roughly have bet each week (% of bankroll) thanks Matt
Do you mean a full Kelly that takes into account simultaneous bets? Or just the sequential full Kelly? Even ignoring the simultaneity issue, the reason the full Kelly isn’t optimal for growth if you are using our model is because we don’t know the true probabilities. Kelly assumes you do.
Point taken about the negative correlation. I guess I had 3-balls or something in mind.
That’s a great book and John Kelly and Ed Thorpe are great men…but they would probably both tell you not to use full Kelly (it is said that the ghost of John Kelly haunts bettors who go broke using full Kelly)