Wasn’t Woodland in the final group at the PGA the year before?
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I never said they were bad players, but it’s very possible for someone to cash in with their first big opportunity
There is no law that says you must blow a golden opportunity to win one before closing one of these out
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That data viz is actually quite surprising.
Possibly it has something to do with travel taking a toll on your body and mental health. I recently came back from Colombia (live in NZ) and jet lag didn’t end until about the 5th day. Poor sleep always makes me play terrible golf IRL as well so I can’t imagine that’s not the case at a high level as well.
This site is so value I love the data surrounding everything we do here. Thanks Matt and Will.
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Ben Curtis was the major bomb of all major bombs in this millennium. Todd Hamilton was massive too. Louis was massive. The British Open can produce some stunners. Hell Tom Watson almost won at 90 years old.
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Regarding upsets in a major. I think people in general underestimate the power of variance and randomness. I would say it’s pointless to limit the time window to something as short as the last 10-12 years. I do agree that the mental strength needed to close a major in is no joke. But at the same time. We would “only” have to see one 100/1 winner to put that category on the green side for the entire 2000s. With a good margin too. And have that happend? Well, the odds on Louie Oosthuizen must have been way longer than that, meaning that on 2000s the Open is the place for upsets, but only in the first 12 years of the century? Or we do nothing of that kind.
Of course you can still have some sort of qualified, empircal guess, which even could have some rational bearing, but do not underestimate variance.
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Looks like this one is Rory’s to lose
While I definitely agree with the general thrust of your message (and I agree 10-12 years is probably too short of a window), I think your thinking is flawed for that specific example. Any given week there are many 100-1 players that could potentially win, and even more of them in a major. This week, the probability of a player with a less than 1% chance of winning (according to our model) winning the event is 35%.
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Would be quite funny if Cameron Young won now, possibly the most “controversial” possible victor in this little debate.
One of the very best players over 100/1 (both on your model and as regarded by the bookmakers), contended at a recent major and has five top threes this season, against zero links experience and has never won a PGA Tour event.
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Yes, of course you’re right about that, I was a bit fast with that thought 
Anyone know the typical rules for a withdrawal on a 3-ball bet? Is it a no action bet or does it switch to head to head? I had Higa in a 3-ball with Na and Von Rooyen. Thought when Von Rooyen pulled out it would be no action, but my book graded the ticket as a loss. Worth a challenge?
I should add that Higa lost heads-up to Na, so if it isn’t a no action bet it probably was graded correctly.
Let’s go Cameron Young! Having McIlroy 2 shots back and looking incredibly sharp is terrifying though…
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This website should have a specific rules section where it discusses what happens in this scenario. Look there.
If it doesn’t, then industry standard is a void.
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Thanks. It’s betcris and I don’t see this covered. I’ll contact and dispute!
I hope you did better than I did
Lost my shirt on this tournament
Oh well, there is another tournament next week
Top 20s were poor for me, went 6-2 on H2H matches (having filtered out a few which didn’t pass my common sense test).
Had Smith outright. I don’t pay any attention to DG for major outrights for reasons already discussed in thread.
Had my worst week of the year, maybe ever
Oh well, next week will be better
The last month and a half was magical. Can’t win every week
What were your bets Daniel?
Lost on outrights, place markets, props, matchups, the works
Lost on DFS too
I use the simulator and bet everything. Usually they do quite well. Not this week
It’s OK, there’s always next week
I got smoked as well. 3-Balls were an utter disaster. At one point, I lost 13 in a row.
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Yeah, one of the worst stretches I’ve ever experienced over the weekend (2-balls / matchups). Frustrating.