What will be the impact of a 54 hole tournament rather than 72? More scope for variability and less chance for better players to prove it?
Good field too. I see they opened up the checkbooks and wrote six figure checks to Paul Casey and Abraham Ancer, LOL
Will Datagolf be publishing a model for the European Tour this week? If not, I understand, but I would appreciate a yes or no answer.
Yes we’ll be posting a bit later this week due to the Saturday start. Should be up Wednesday evening.
Interesting that there was a ton of value this week in the finish position markets after we posted the model a couple days later than most bookmakers. Part (and maybe most) of this was likely due to the fact that it’s a 54-hole event which requires an adjustment to the price-setting process, and that would be difficult for books that aren’t running simulations.
May I ask about the course fit calculation there? (you are negative bombers, negative accuracy, i.e. driving skill doesn’t matter much, relatively)
Green Eagles has hosted four ET tournaments, I think - are you using all four? I was wondering because I’m not sure what stats were available back in 2016 on the Euro (i.e. do you know what each player in that tournament’s ‘driving profile’ was at that point in time?) Or have you scratched that edition of the tournament and gone from 2017 onwards?
The main reason I’m curious is because the DG take on course fit is wildly different to some tipsters, who see the 5 x par 5s and instantly think bomber’s paradise. I guess it’s offset with 5 x par 3s too, haha.
I fully expect that there’d be big value every week if everything, even the outright book, didn’t go up until mid-Tuesday or Wednesday.
It’s a trade-off between partially sacrificing an outright betting market which isn’t particularly profitable (I say partially because 3/4s of the value golfers on the Euro Tour are tipped by nobody and the price holds) for a place model which is.
To me it’s an obvious net plus in holding back on everything until most of the bookies have “went”, but opinions will vary on that.
It’s notable that bet365 were still one of the last to price the markets, and were top price on hardly anyone.
can you elaborate on this: “3/4s of the value golfers on the Euro Tour are tipped by nobody and the price holds”, I’m not sure I understand what you saying.
We might have a bit of an experiment next week for both tours as we are going to wait to do the site update until after the Monday-finish European Tour event is done.
I meant that generally prices crash on players because either the Data Golf market makes them value or a prominent tipster has tipped them.
Generally speaking, on the Euro Tour your model tends to recommend unfancied outsiders at big prices for the outright market who nobody else tips. Apart from the limited field desert tournaments at the start of the season which attracted a lot of big names, I believe your shortest pre-tournament outright bet of the season in Europe was 45/1. I believe that you could put out the outright odds on Monday or Wednesday, and at least 3/4 of the golfers would be the same price. I think it’s a fair trade-off to miss out on one or two outright bets a week to get 15 in the place markets.
By contrast, for the PGA Tour the model recommends players towards the top of the market a lot more frequently (because the quality gap between the players at the top of the market and the rest is much greater on the PGA Tour than in Europe, where the real class players play), so the chances of the prices holding until Wednesday would be lower because tipsters with a good following would be more likely to tip them.
Next week is an awkward one in Europe because it’s a mixed event with the women, so doubtless there are going to be separate win markets for the tournament overall and the men and women individually. I’m not even sure they’ll bother with a top 10/20 market for just the men.
Also, if DG were to release predictions say Tuesday afternoon rather than Monday morning, by then the market is a lot more liquid, books will be more confident in their prices, and so by waiting a day not only do we negate the copying problem to an extent, as we make them go first, we also are betting into a market that is going to tolerate our action much better, meaning more DG subscribers can actually get on and it’s not a race. And of course hopefully by waiting there are more and bigger bets to go around anyway!!
I guess what I’m saying is part of the problem with the Monday release is that we’re betting into a really fragile market at that point, and that’s why books adjust so aggressively towards the DG number.
Actually I’ve noticed the price crashes in the mid-tournament T5/T10/T20 markets too. I think the race is always there, you just have to win it.
The 3-ball prices have a similar phenomenon.
What’s happened to the Porsche Euro Tour Top 5/10/20, Cut and FRL bets this week?
Seems that no odds are being scraped from the UK books (Bet 365, Sky, Hills etc.)
Just fixed now, should be back up shortly.
Looks like we are going to give this a whirl this week Will be very interested to see how much the odds move after DG puts out there numbers
Has anybody tracked how much they have moved merely in relation to each other?
I’m not sure what happened with the books with this tournament. Usually I have just a few minutes to make wagers before the T5/T10/T20/T30/T40 odds all move and I’m left holding the bag. Even if I rush, I lose a lot of good prices in the middle of the wagering.
I don’t think it’s the timing of the odds release, for some reason the books were slow to react. I’ll take it but I don’t expect this to be an ongoing phenomenon.