Presidents Cup Probabilities

We posted our probabilities and wrote a short thread on Twitter. We are way higher on the Internationals than the bookmakers, but I think it is due to more qualitative adjustments (unless there is a bug in our simulation code… but I’m pretty sure there isn’t – and the back-of-the-envelope calculation lines up with our numbers). What do you think?

Also, I’m not necessarily saying the additional boost to the American team isn’t justified… but the betting market has been known to like a good narrative :upside_down_face:.


The best betting opportunity since mayweather mcgregor!

I think your numbers are right. The international team is not that bad. I will be backing my boys Sungjae and Hideki like I always do.

Somewhat related, but nothing to do with the presidents cup---- something that may be worth investigating is whether the 12 percent tie probability that appears from simulating independent rounds and comparing scorecards is well-reflected empirically in the data from 18 hole matchplay.

The reason I ask is that in other sports (soccer for example), modelling the correct-score market using a poisson process (or something similar) systematically underestimates the number of ties when compared to the actual data. I am wondering if there may be a similar phenomenon in golf, where some psychological factors play into the way the scores shake out and produce more ties.

EDIT: I am not actually asking you to look into this-- it seems like it would be a pain. I am just thinking out loud…

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Presumably home advantage is negated by the crowd for this not being as passionate as for the Ryder Cup. All the international team are US based and would have had an opportunity to play the course previously (except Tom Kim) so unfamiliarity shouldn’t be an issue.

On team chemistry, option for internationals to go pure nationality pairings with just Hideki / Bez being mismatched.

The big movement in odds has been LIV related. What would the odds be in your methodology with Cam, Ancer, Niemann, Oosty, maybe Ortiz and Leish- whoever would be strongest in SG adjusted for course fit? I know effectively you would have to include dJ, Bryson and maybe Brooks / Gooch but just to keep it simple assume US is as is.

Also, taking into account course fit, should Fox be in for Bez or has his recent drop-off hurt him too much?

The prop market on how many beers JT chugs during his match is the real market for this tournament

‘Draw’ odds on BetFair are 22 right now.

I bet big on the International Team +7.5.

I wish I could bet something like +10.5 -225.

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2 hours into the tournament and this is over.

Goodbye cash

I’ll buy all your bets for 1 cent on the dollar Daniel. At least you get back something.

Well if I had bet International Team -7.5 I would definitely do it but at +7.5, maybe I have a 1 in 3 chance

I expected International Team to lose but I expected something like a 18-12 hiding

This is just unreal

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Immelman only plays Muñoz twice so far… 2nd best player on the team, while Pendrith misses every 10 footer he sees. What a joke.

Hmm, at least the Internationals showed a little life on Saturday afternoon

On pace for the 18-12 hiding, that would be just fine with me

Sunday matches released, very interested in seeing what DG has to say.

Keep in mind we aren’t updating skill levels from pre-tournament. We could have used the shot data but just haven’t put in the effort yet to set that up.