In my experience being “sharp” has far more to do with speed than handicapping or analytical skill.
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And it goes without saying the results of your model speak for themselves. Thanks for all ya’ll do.
Thanks. But to Daniel’s point, it is tricky to compare the quality of a model or a bettor’s ability to price things by looking at betting results, just because so much is dependent on the odds one gets.
Staking is also of critical importance. Not just which players you take at what number, but how much you place on it.
Good point, my rule of thumb for staking is:
Stake + winnings = 1% of bankroll
So if you have a $1000 bankroll and you wish to back Rahm to win the Open at +900, you wager $1 to win $9. $1 + $9 = $10 = 1% of 1000.
This sounds like a small amount but it adds up quick when you are making 100+ wagers a week.
I wouldn’t spend the time to calculate your edge and adjusting your bet size. That time is better spent locking in your wager before the lines move. You must win the race or you lose.
Agree to disagree here. Betting in proportion to your edge is extraordinarily important. A Kelly Criterion calculator isn’t that difficult to build (or find) and implement into a tracking sheet. I do think you’re best served to pick a fraction and stick with it though, rather than mess with that part of the equation. Then determine your edge thresholds to play
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In general I bet first and ask questions later, trying to beat the line move. I don’t always win the race even with this approach.
I do make adjustments on the big bets, usually the huge chalk wagers. Most weeks there are at most a handful of wagers that fit the bill so you can take your time and bet big on those.
You better be sure on your edges though. The big chalks is where I’m most confident of my calculations. However there are times when you see +170 on a 3-ball that Datagolf claims has a 15% edge and you’re wondering whether the book or Datagolf is right.
Overbetting small or nonexistent edges is the fastest way to go broke.
15% is hardly a small edge, especially on a +170 3-ball. Not a big enough edge for a Finish Position, but more than above the playable threshold for 3-ball. You never KNOW your edge, that’s why utilizing a (consistent) Kelly fraction is prudent. This isn’t Blackjack, there are too many unknowns.
@DG_Fan - would love to know more about this topic as it’s something I struggle with every week.
Is improper bet sizing going to negatively impact my ROI or is it just going to impact variance?
I’m using thresholds to determine if I should make a bet and I try to do some intuitive bet sizing but most of the bets I make are being placed at the max limit that the book allows.
I used to be good at math but I’m not anymore.
Continue to max bet or do I really need to get the sizing right based on a fraction of Kelly?
In my experience, Kelly Criterion is everything (Kelly in Vegas is nothing lol sorry)
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Also, reading Ed Miller’s book “The Logic of Sportsbetting” is very helpful. Cap’t Jack has some good YouTube videos, some with links to resources (like a Kelly Calculator). I have no affiliation with either of these
You absolutely must use a fraction of Kelly. Not doing so will definitely negatively affect your ROI and variance.
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Use like 10% Kelly if you are not running the race
But identifying and wagering like 100-200 bets in 1 hour is not easy, LOL
Even at that speed I lose a lot of plays due to line movements
You can do it if you have a tracking spreadsheet built already. and 10% Kelly would be within my lower range, yes. But I like to stick to 1/6 - 1/8 Kelly when taking a large number of shots on one event.
I utilize 1/4 and just stick with it no matter what. My weekly variance can be rather high, but so is my personal risk tolerance. Also, I break out my total bankroll into different bankrolls for different sports, so if I bleed over on Wed-Thurs it’s really not a big deal. Also, I don’t calculate bonuses or bookmaker grading errors into my bankroll calculation, so that all adds up to a little extra wiggle room. And I’m running usually around 60-80 bets per week.
That kind of contradicts. The edge is one of the inputs to Kelly, so the less confidence you have in knowing your edge the less useful the Kelly output is.
Kelly also doesn’t factor a persons mental position or ability to get a bet on. The concepts of kelly are useful to understand, but imo its only of real use if you have unlimited ability to get bets on and your bank role is within your risk tolerance.
Eg The last bet i took was £120. Kelly tells me £18,776 is my optimal stake. Thats nonsense, I couldnt get anywhere near that amount on… even if i could i couldnt handle losing that amount - and because i can’t stake that much on other bets it would take ages to recover that loss
Different I guess if you have clean accounts and a bank role which is relatively small to other income
Yes, the less confidence you have in your edge the less useful Kelly is. Hence utilizing the fraction. That’s what I said.
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If the Kelly recommended bet is a giant percentage of your bankroll, then you can be sure that you are mis-measuring your actual edge. The problem is not with Kelly, its with the inputs.
Inputs were fine, I slightly erred on the side of caution with my edge but it became a good example as the edge was huge and odds short.
I guess the definition of bank could be tweaked, how much is really bank or how much are you willing to lose entirely on a certain method… but even the latter throws out a sum i couldnt actually get on the bet and wouldnt tolerate using.
The context is around sharps. If a sharps genuinely sharp theyll most likely have big banks and difficulties getting on. They’ll have learnt back roll management to get there, but that doesnt mean they have to follow a kelly % to stay there. (i listened to a podcast last week from a pro gambler saying similar thing)
Basically you should be using the principles of Kelly without making every calculation.
The very best bets you can possibly make are the big chalk bets that have a short turnaround time. I reserved my big wagers for the human interest stories who overcame all odds to qualify and unloaded on them to miss the cut. If I’m getting -380 on a prop that is north of 90% I’m going to pull the trigger for sure.
If you do the Kelly math you’ll find that these props have the highest Kelly % wager size and the shortest doubling time.
Make no mistake, I bet all the longshots too but it’s the big favorites that have me salivating.
Other than that it’s about the speed. Let’s say you have a $1000 bankroll, and they flash Sam Forgan to miss the cut in the Open at -380. You have to have a quick trigger finger and be wiling to make the huge bet laying those odds (as in, $100 or more) before the odds move or are taken down. If you can get to the point where you can make those wagers quickly without second guessing yourself, you’re well on your way to becoming a big winner.