Scandinavian Mixed

Weekly Discussion
#1

Morning guys

Will you be posting a sheet on the Scandinavian Mixed on the European Tour this week?

thanks

#2

What I was thinking is that you’d still have the underlying data for the men, so you could simulate that as if it was a 78 man event, as opposed to a 156 person mixed event.

Crudely speaking, people could then double the price to account for the women, and then ascertain some sort of value. So if a golfer was 5.0 to finish top twenty of the 78 men, and your model said the fair odds were 4.1, then accounting for the women you’d want to back at 10.0 because fair odds would be 8.2.

This would probably be overly cautious, given that of the top 30 players in the betting market 26 are men.

#3

We won’t have content related to finish position because for that you really do need data on the women, but we will post matchup stuff and add the European data to the relevant pages (e.g. skill decomposition) within the next hour. We will make some assumption about how many men make the cut (which I assume is the usual 65 and ties… so maybe 45-50 of the 78 men can be expected to make the cut, given how the betting market is pricing the men vs. women?) which does matter slightly for matchup prices.

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#4

If we’re assuming more than half the men make the cut, surely it then follows that the top 20 should be at least a 10/10 split.

Can’t we have the lines up with a do at your own risk disclamer? I get it for the outright market because all it takes is one woman playing well, but top 20 + double odds would be safe enough for me to take.

#5

Okay we have posted the men’s probabilities on the European Tour predictions page. There won’t be a finish tool update.

#6

Wonderful compromise, thanks Matt

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#7

Can we get the same for this week please?

#8

Yeah, I think we’ll update all the tools this week, assuming books are offering Men-only odds.

#9

99% sure that books won’t be posting a market for men only, but would still like the chance to bet on the place markets.

Any chance you could put men only in the sub-tours with a disclaimer?

#10

Ya, it’s in sub tours now.

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