I remember back in an old blog post on DG Matt saying ‘Books can price players for a number of different reasons’ or something to that affect.
Aberg this week is a good example of when book odds can differ heavily from DG odds. Does their model really spit the guy out at 13:1 at the start? Or do they price that because they know people want to bet on him regardless of price.
Its one of the reasons why weighting margin free bookmaker odds into the DG model can get a bit weird. Bookmaker motivations are not strictly about accuracy. Henley with a lot of value this week, kind of wish we saw something positive from him last week. Good luck!
Was thinking about the same thing. I really think it’s just like you said, bookmakers know people will bet Aberg no matter what like they know people still bet Tiger with odds below +10000.
And don’t getme wrong, i love Aberg but the change we see on the odds now versus the odds when he turned pro saw a massive change. I think they changed too quickly. I rather fade Aberg at this price then bet it.
Regarding everybody else, sadly i don’t have acess to the majority of books being in Europe but i usually monitor odds and you can get a lot of value this week with some of the guys. I monitor Circa, regarded as a sharper bookmarker, and they opened Conners at +2100 while everywhere else had him at +3000. They are much closer to DG odds than everybody else too.
Saw a couple with Putnam at +6100 (now gone) so if we move quickly, seems like the beginning of the year can be quite profitable.
Please bet responsibly on Russell Henley.
Good to see old favourites Tyler Duncan and Zac Blair back in the green.
I saw Tiger 20 to 1 to win a major this year…
The 30 seconds Henley was a favourite to win were electric.
Yeah… pretty big choke fest there. Russ had it with a solid finish.
Today from Russell Henley is something that won’t show up as a negative in the pressure tool (exact opposite actually).
It would be nice if there was a way to be more specific with the data (hole by hole, winning % change during round, etc).
Doesn’t really matter much but still an interesting thought.