There definitely is a lot of noise in a round or even a tournament.
Random question… what would you guys think about us removing the odds screens from the Scratch Tools? Our model odds would still be available everywhere they are currently (simulation tools, API, etc).
Does that send the value of the paid product to zero for you? 50%? No effect? Just curious as books are a big pain for us to maintain with sites blocking bot traffic more and more, plus once a book is on our screen the value tends to vanish quicker. Anyways, just curious for any thoughts.
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Matt, I assume you mean removing it altogether, not opening it up to non-Scratch members?
Would you still archive some books odds for historical purposes in the API?
I would miss it, but could live without it, especially if books don’t get hammered as quickly.
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Yeah just removing the books altogether. Not really considering it at the moment, but maybe sometime in the future.
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get rid of them please — books wont adjust as quick
Absolutely love the Long/Short/Accurate/Inaccurate icons on Live Stats page. Any chance of retaining these for future tournaments and including across the site on profile pages and live model etc.? Thanks
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They have been on live stats for a few months, and are also available on all past results pages! Not sure we could add them to profiles… they technically are specific to each field (top 25% among players in tournament).
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Just to clarify in this scenario when the model odds ‘release’ the odds screen that compares to the books would go (the PGA/EUR/LIV link to the screen showing green vs books) but the pre-tournament model page would still show at that time?
Yes, the two odds screens (outright and matchups) would go, but the model probabilities would be posted on the usual pages.
(I haven’t really thought this through.)
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Ha well in that case, just one subscriber’s view, but it wouldn’t change the value of the paid product much at all. The only downside I can see would be the ease of identifying edges in the 5-10 minutes after release as any time beyond this the prices have mostly gone, Major weeks aside. However this is probably offset, perhaps value adding, if some extra work deters a % of people from instantly seeing where the green is.
I’d add the caveat here that I barely use the books on the screen anymore so don’t currently have a process of see odds drop > head to listed book > bet. Perhaps users who do would weight that page much heavier in their value calculus.
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Yes, although edges may also hang around longer after release time without the odds screen. One issue could be this advantages API users (some of whom are probably sportsbook employees) even more over regular users.
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Matt, exactly this would be my primary concern with making that change.
Another edition of the Masters Tournament that favored accuracy, relatively speaking.
My half-baked, somewhat educated theories on why this is:
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ANGC fairways roll out more than they used to. I believe the club has made some changes by way of sand-capping the fairways, allowing the ball to move on the ground more than it did in the 2010’s.
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Changes made at 13 and 15. Anecdotally I feel the lengthening of those holes has reduced the bomber’s advantage they once had. The 2nd shot approach into those greens is more difficult and has had an outsized impact on the longer players. Especially on 15, as the firm green is so hard to hold and get close to the hole. Rory’s high-ball flight has produced some of the best shots into 15. It is his superpower. There have also been a handful of rounds the last 5 years where the wind is playing in and any length advantage is neutralized as it becomes a three-shotter for the majority of the field.
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Somewhat related to point #1, the length advantage is neutralized on a handful of other holes. 2, 10, 11 come to mind. On 2 and 10, most of the field can find the speed slot down the fairway and have relatively similar approach shots. On 11, they removed all those trees right of the fairway in 2022 and I’m curious how that has affected the shot value OTT. Guys used to miss right of the trees way down there and have that opening to draw it into the green (where Tiger was every round 2019).
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Lastly: even with 6 years of tournament data, the sample size is relatively small. Even more so because it’s a smaller field. So there is variance involved here. Like what does the Bomb-O-Meter look like this week if Collin Morikawa and Brian Campbell don’t have two of the best short game weeks of their career?
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I would be against this as I don’t have the time or ability at work to go through and check odds against every single guy on the 2-3 books I bet on. I am more of a normy user since I dont have the plus subscription and would have no idea how to use the API.
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Good post. Hoping to revisit some of the trends we highlighted last week in a newsletter soon.
I assume you saw it, but in the Masters preview newsletter we found that putting (probably noise) and approach play seemed to be driving the recent bomb-o-meter readings favouring accuracy.
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