Excited for this. Looked for a while like the Majors could be Scottie then a substantial gap but here we are and it feels like the gap has shrunk with Rahm’s level and the amount of tier 2 and 3 guys in great form.
Fire away taeks, bets, etc.
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@matt_courchene @will_courchene - wanted to ask for clarity on something mentioned in the live blog about rookies and sophomores. They have performed -0.19 and -0.32 worse than expected. Let’s say for simplicity’s sake we make that -0.25 for anyone in their first or second go at Augusta. Is this accounted for in course history adjustments?
I see -0.05 dock on the rookies in the decomp. Does the big boost on CH for experienced players cover the theoretical -0.25? Or is that boost the ‘positive’ for experience while the ‘negative’ for inexperience is just a small baseline dock?
Yeah, I was thinking about this a bit… Will’s analysis posted yesterday is independent of what we are doing in the model, but they should be consistent with each other. So, yes, the model is intended to capture that experience effect.
As for whether they are consistent, the average course history adjustment is +0.1 for the field this week. For rookies it’s -0.05, for players with 8+ Masters played its +0.28, so that works out to a +0.33 advantage over rookies. That’s lower than what is implied by the table, but models will generally be conservative relative to unadjusted data. We also have the major adjustments, which correlate with inexperience at Augusta, so that would dock rookies a bit more.
edit: looking at major + ch bump, the Augusta rookies go down to -0.11, while the 8+ guys go up to +0.35, so 0.46 total, which is getting closer to what’s in Will’s table.
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Just to jump in - does the pre tournament or in play model have a pressure factor? If not so you think the top guys should be slightly lower odds than implied?
Thanks