Excited for this. Looked for a while like the Majors could be Scottie then a substantial gap but here we are and it feels like the gap has shrunk with Rahm’s level and the amount of tier 2 and 3 guys in great form.
Fire away taeks, bets, etc.
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@matt_courchene @will_courchene - wanted to ask for clarity on something mentioned in the live blog about rookies and sophomores. They have performed -0.19 and -0.32 worse than expected. Let’s say for simplicity’s sake we make that -0.25 for anyone in their first or second go at Augusta. Is this accounted for in course history adjustments?
I see -0.05 dock on the rookies in the decomp. Does the big boost on CH for experienced players cover the theoretical -0.25? Or is that boost the ‘positive’ for experience while the ‘negative’ for inexperience is just a small baseline dock?
Yeah, I was thinking about this a bit… Will’s analysis posted yesterday is independent of what we are doing in the model, but they should be consistent with each other. So, yes, the model is intended to capture that experience effect.
As for whether they are consistent, the average course history adjustment is +0.1 for the field this week. For rookies it’s -0.05, for players with 8+ Masters played its +0.28, so that works out to a +0.33 advantage over rookies. That’s lower than what is implied by the table, but models will generally be conservative relative to unadjusted data. We also have the major adjustments, which correlate with inexperience at Augusta, so that would dock rookies a bit more.
edit: looking at major + ch bump, the Augusta rookies go down to -0.11, while the 8+ guys go up to +0.35, so 0.46 total, which is getting closer to what’s in Will’s table.
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Just to jump in - does the pre tournament or in play model have a pressure factor? If not so you think the top guys should be slightly lower odds than implied?
Thanks
Could Rory go back to back?! Certainly nobody is counting him out but how possible is it really?
The LIV guys all still have something to prove at Augusta… thinking there will be a LIV name higher up the leaderboard than most think. Who will it be?!
My takes:
T5 - Brooks, Scottie,
T10 - Rory, Aberg
T20 - Rahm, C. Young
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I like Ortiz to over-perform from the ‘rest’ of LIV. Strong irons and chipping sounds good to me at Augusta, contended in US Open last year. My cope with lack of course history (two rounds) is his impressive track record at no1 comp course Riviera.
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Given the firm, fast conditions expected, is there a way to look at apex height on approach shots in the data?
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Looking for input on a Masters pool I’m in. Players that you take that miss the cut get automatic 80s for each of the last 2 rounds, so desperately want to avoid those.
I’m torn on my last 2, and I’m struggling between Patrick Reed and Cam Young. Am I crazy to take Reed? He’s playing well and course history goes a long way here. Feel like he gives me a safe cut maker, and maybe some leverage as more entries will have Young.
Also have Spieth, but was toying replacing him with either Cam Young or Bhatia. Don’t love Bhatia’s ARG profile compared to Jordan or Cam. Am I overthinking that one? Any input appreciated 
I mean personally I could never leave Young out. Think the decision would be between Reed, Spieth, and Bhatia and Spieth is a level above in the model. I wouldn’t really mind leaning into betting markets and going Reed though I’d note the arguments for Reed’s course history also strengthen Spieth’s case.
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Thanks. I may actually swap Cam in for Fleetwood. I think Fleetwood will be one of the highest rostered guys, so that might gain me some leverage. (And hope this isn’t the year Fleetwood wins, lol)
Ugh, not a good start for Ortiz! Jeez
Early morning start, losing 6 shots in four holes to Olazabal should wake him up. Can’t get worse, right?
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Anyone watching via the ESPN app? It’s started doing something really annoying a week or two back, after commercial break it goes backwards like 10 minutes. I have to remember to bring up the menu and hit Go Live to get it back to real-time. Sometimes have to hit it twice (just now.) Super annoying 
App is so bad across all sports
Looking like I’m going to regret that Cam for Fleetwood swap (but at least I have Reed.)
it got worse. Some disastrous days out there.
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Amazing stuff on blog. I check so often
One Q is what is mechanism that would make a course swing from favoring accuracy to bombers from day to day without serious weather changes? I guess what makes you think it is predictive late in day and not noise ?
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Curious why you guys have Cam a favorite over Rory?
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Yeah, I was surprised by that. A few different things contributing… I summarized it in a reply to the most recent post on the live blog. Basically Cam’s ball-striking has been better, and his R3 was much better, and he’s gotten a bit “unlucky” compared to Rory (hole outs, etc).
But ya not accounting for any differential pressure effects of it being a final round in a major.