Seems worth its own thread. Been enjoying the live blog: The Players | 2026 Live Blog | Data Golf
Clear movement early on matchups at Cris with every one being towards AM starters: PGA Tour Match-Up Odds Screen | Data Golf
I am questioning this a little with forecasts now. Wind seems to be picking up Thursday AM and (from what I can find) there’s a threat of weather suspending play Thursday midday on. That opens up all sorts of possibilities.
Sure we’re all on Henley and Si Woo. Hisatsune my favourite outsider.
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I always have a hard time with weather forecasts/adjustments.
So what you’re saying is BetCris has moved their lines on matchups to favor the players with AM/PM times? However you question the validity of this because there could be a stoppage in play and then basically throw all the initial wave adjustments to garbage?
Yes, Betcris opened their 72h matchups and there was a quick shift across the board to AM players in matchups vs PM players. They moved far enough on some that it created green value which says to me someone thinks the advantage for AM players would be larger than the DG weather has it.
That move was early in the week so my point is that the forecast looks messier now. The wind has picked up a little Thursday AM, potential rain stoppage Thursday PM could push players later into Thursday which might help BUT it could push them into Friday AM which looks tough.
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Morikawa WD after 1 hole. RIP my 31% exposure, including all my cash games 
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Very unfortunate! Happening after one hole is absolutely sickening too for any bets on him. Had him a couple of groups that involved Ludvig mainly so despite it opening up some outrights not ideal.
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Although…looking at my 50/50’s, he’s almost 75% owned, so not dead there. And in my head to head games, looks like he was almost 100% owned, so might be a wash there. 
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Always wondered regarding weather … at what point during the week do the wave/weather adjustments get factored into the “betting tools?”
I know for DFS you have to adjust it yourself, but what about the betting tools? I imagine they reflect the adjustments at some point?
Believe it is updated after the tee times come out and updated throughout the week. If you make a custom model you should re-run it to get updated weather projections.
Appears the aforementioned AM/PM split has gone the other way, so far at least.
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thank you! Appreciate it!
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I somehow stumbled into an outright on Grillo after thinking he found his ball striking last time out.
He hadn’t.
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I know we’ve talked about it a ton over the years, but DG is way off on Koepka. He’s basically a dog against everyone and he shouldn’t be.
I was feeling pretty good about Bhatia against him in the 3-ball after 14! Haven’t worried about Brooks too much recently due to LIV and but I tend to avoid any marginal bets vs him in the ‘tougher’ tourneys.
Ludvig my big concern, getting absolutely obliterated by him. He got smashed from 26.0 to 21.0 in the hours before tee off and seems someone rated him highly here.
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Ya Will followed Brooks yesterday for a bit and was very impressed. From a model standpoint, not much you can do apart from manually adjusting his skill by a shot. Betcris has BK at a similar level to us.
Pretty easy thing to say, and the natural conclusion to come to, if you’ve been burned by him this week.
However I think this is pretty shortsighted and only accounts for the last 3 days.
I’ve been enjoying the fade BK train. Hit him for a few big numbers on Miss Cuts late last year on the DP, probably a few matchups against him too. Then again Miss Cut at WM Phoenix I think? Maybe even one more early this season… and one or two matchups too.
He definetly burned us this week and, watching the broadcast, he looks like he’s striping it. This can happen when you bet against a 5 time major winner.
However I wouldn’t say DG is wrong on BK. DG’s been right a lot on BK. Just not this week.
Also props to him, he bounced back late in his round friday …but after bogey-double-double, he could easily have continued the struggle and miss the cut.
Edit : if you’ve been with DG for a while, you know fading BK will flash green. Will not always pay off but big picture, it has definetly been a winning venture.
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I agree saying ‘DG is way off on Koepka’ is too simplistic and usually comes when he’s playing well. However, being honest, I do find myself sympathising with @sabal23’s point because…I’d never lay the outright odds on Koepka that the model produces so I guess I also, to some extent, feel the model is ‘wrong’ on Brooks.
We’re not automatons though. If I see green on a tourney matchup vs some average player who is solely there through a massive course fit bump then I can think twice. The thing is that once he starts playing well, or in Majors, he starts being matched vs legit golfers. Bhatia the past couple of days has felt like a good bet vs Brooks because he is simply playing better golf. I’ve paid the price but feel fine with it.
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I don’t think it’s simplistic when it’s been a topic of discussion for years (due to LIV).
the DG price for Ashkay v. Koepka was -160 yesterday. by FAR the biggest line of any matchup in green (at least in the five books i used). It’s not that Koepka is winning these matchups lately, it’s the size of the “EV” lines (and therefor being dogs against A LOT of golfers).
He’s recently been big dogs (and won) vs. Higgo, Harry, Homa and more.
You can’t tell me Koepka should be a dog vs. just about everyone.
Now, If I blindly follow the “green,” especially if I’m bringing it up, it’s about me. But to me it’s clear Koepka’s current numbers are wrong.
My point is that stating as fact that ‘the model is way off’ is too simplistic. As samdanc has pointed out fading Brooks has worked plenty. He MC’d at 3/4 Majors last year. What I am not saying is that how to value Koepka is a simplistic topic in its entirety, as I acknowledged above. Clearly it is anything but.
‘big dog vs just about everybody’ - I’d point out Bhatia isn’t ‘everybody’. -160 feels v bullish but I’d make Bhatia a clear favourite so doesn’t seem insane. As for the others that wasn’t this week right? I’d always assumed the Koepka narrative was that he phoned it in for run-of-the-mill events and spiked in the big ones. Is it now that he is undervalued everywhere? I could certainly buy that coming back from LIV has ignited a fire.
Players
Round 1 vs. Cantlay
Round 2 vs. Harry (and 3B v. Akshay, Finau)
Round 3 vs. Bhatia
Higgo and Homa last event. Also in that event, in the third round, Olesen actually beat Koepka. Koepka dog in every instance.
We’re all in agreement that Koepka is it’s own animal when it comes to the big events.
However you are using a 2 tournament sample to justify your point. Golf is high variance and we could basically apply your point to any golfer out there… we could say DG was wrong on Si Woo, way too high on him as the 2nd favorite to win and finish outside the top 50.
Yeah, if we look at the last 2 tournaments, DG wrong on Koepka. However, the 10 previous tournaments tell a different story. We all know we can’t blindly bet anything green against Koepka in big tournaments because he’ll show up. I was still very happy to bet Straka and Hovland against him.
I also lost the English/Bhatia matchups in R2-R3 …I’d place those bets again if I could.
Is Koepka as bad as the last year suggest? No.
I would not be surprised if he was relevant in a Major this year.
Still doesn’t mean DG was way off, just because a stretch of 5-6 bets against him went badly.
My opinion.
Was happy to fade him. Happy I faded him, even if I lost this week.
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Fun tournament to watch. Got bailed out by the Ludvig collapse; as noted in the live blog Sawgrass seems like a tough place relatively to hold onto a numerous stroke lead.
Plenty of interesting notes: JT going to be a fascinating guy to rate. Shocked he got it turned around this quick and given his profile wouldn’t expect it at Sawgrass but he’s got great history there.
Knapp back play into this performance we think?
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