The Sentry 2024

Hope everyone had a good holiday. B365 has Sentry odds up… where is everyone’s excitement level at for the season? After actually seeing the Sentry field on paper, it kind of made me think Rahm being gone won’t be that important to the PGA Tour week-to-week. I’m feeling pretty good about the next 3 months, the build-up to the Masters always delivers!

And of course from a betting standpoint, Rahm’s move doesn’t really change anything, unless it starts tipping the scales towards books and bettors paying more attention to LIV.


Hey Matt.

Hope you are doing well. Actually just saw the odds too. Curious to see what the model does but probably is a better tournament to bet live due to the reduced size of the field.

Curious to see how Scottie does with the new putter after the Hero too and how Aberg fares on the new courses.

Hope everybody has a great year and greetings from Portugal to everyone.

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While I don’t like that Rahm “defected”, I’m of the mentality of next-man-up. Maybe Aberg turns into the next Rahm. Either way, as we see in golf, things can change quickly and new stars are always right around the corner! I’m looking forward the the new season. Best of luck, all!

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Happy New Year everyone! Hope you all enjoyed time with your family. Personally it was a bit difficult to sell to everyone at xmas that the reason my 50k in golf bets this year just barely broke even was because of my sizings. Good to be back amongst the like-minded.

Sentry 2024 is going to be a banger and I’ll make an early prediction that this year is the year of Scotty Sheffler. Bold call, I know. Aberg hype aside (approach game is Swedish winter levels of ice-cold), if Sheffler can even find the heel of the putter this year then it’s all on. The guy is literally perfect and has a head the size of a watermelon , Mohanan has to be thanking his lucky stars. Schefflers putting impressed me enough at Tigers tourney to back him for every tournament for the next year. Hovland struggling was pretty surprising considering how he finished the season, not going to make too much of it tbh.

This week is all about full sending it off the tee and then sticking it close, sharp iron players will be feasting. The usual names will be topping the charts this year at Kapalua.

Speaking of seasons, with no golf on TV I’m really fuckin lost as to what to watch. I don’t gamble on anything else so I’m bored out of my mind. The PGA Tour schedule may be oversaturated but I’m all for it.

With all that being said, how do Xander, Cantlay, Morikawa or McIlroy (yea he’s in this group now) not make a run at some of the bigger tournaments/majors this year? I can’t wait to find out, bring on another great year of DG in 2024!


Ya Scottie continues to be underrated I think… he just gained 3 strokes T2G in a season that was really like 1.5 seasons in terms of rounds played.

The watermelon head line got me good, just comes out of nowhere. I’ve always thought Scottie looks a lot like Quagmire.

Also, if you’re going to join the Scheffler fan club you might have to learn how to spell his name, or at the very least one of his names.


He is one of a kind that’s for sure.

My dark horse pick this week (not going to bet it because afraid) is Cam Davis. The guy has been playing well lately.

He has the bonus of being aussie. They have pretty good track records in this course too.

I’m on Scottie too but i’m curious to see what Fleetwood, Tom Kim and Theegala do here. They all seem to be great profiles to play here.

My dark horse would be Eric Cole but being a debutant in a star subbed field i don’t know how he will handle the added pressure.

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Decent sized bump for Collin there from first sim, nearly 1%. Purely wave?

Yes, from getting that first tee time slot. Opposite for Scottie.

I’m seeing conflicting forecasts though… the one displayed on our site doesn’t show as much wind, but the one we use earlier in the week to project wave splits is showing a lot more wind.

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Season seems to be starting off strong, lots of betting volume for me this week on tournament matchups and decent for first round.


Scotie Sheffler stinks!

News flash, putting is part of the sport. I do not anticipate that he will figure in the running for OSSPOY, but we will see.

This response highlights the dangers of drinking golf media branded Kool-aid.

Scheffler is the Nicklaus of our time, his bad shots are good shots for everyone else. The guy literally launches himself off the ground and pirouettes on iron shots and still finds the center of the club. You cannot teach hands or hand-eye coordination like that. He busted into the scoring records last year while being negative SG in putting. It’s absolutely absurd what he’s doing right now, also he’s humble and religious so that should keep him on the straight and narrow for like 5 more years. Oh yea, and he’s 27…


I like wherever Cam is evens vs Day for Top Aussie. Already a bit of value and it feels like Day only has downside outside the model with his general health history.

Trying to be concious where I step in front of Åberg but feels fine doing it with these elite guys.

He has 6 career victories at age 27!!

“The Nicklaus of our time”

When Tiger Woods was 26 he became the first and only player to win 5 pga tour events in 5 consecutive years!! What on earth are we even talking about here!!??

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Probably not fair to compare across eras, I think it has to be way harder to win now than ever before (although there is no easy way to prove that). But ya of course Scheffler is not Tiger, nobody is.

I think Scottie could potentially be the best player of this generation though; obviously a very long way to go, but he just played an entire season head-and-shoulders above Rory and Rahm in the ball-striking department. Like really, it wasn’t even close how much better Scheffler was.

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Obviously I am not disputing that he is an excellent player, or that he had a great year hitting the ball. Nor am I disputing that putting is less predictive than ball striking.

I am just pointing out that putting is part of the sport, and if you lose strokes putting every week (in Scheffler’s case, mostly by not converting any mid range putts), at a certain point you are just a bad putter.

The strokes-gained revolution has been great for giving better clarity into who is good at what, but I feel like sometimes we forget that the objective of the sport is to put the ball in the hole, and if you suck at putting, that is ultimately an important hindrance to your greatness as a player.

Now, he can improve, and it is easier to get better at putting than it is to become a generational ball striker, but I will believe it when I see it.

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I think a large number of people understimate what Scottie did this past year due to the putting woes but even if he only add a SG Putting around +1 strokes, as an example, he would be miles ahead of the competition for the majority of the year.

We had the Hero as an example. He gained just +0.38 on putting and he was by fair the best player on the field. Never looked close to anyone else catching him.

I understand your point. I think the work with Phil Kenyon at least shows he is trying to upgrade that part of his game and the results showed, even if at a low positivie number, on the Hero.

I agree for the most part, putting is still important and is a repeatable skill and we’ve almost gone too far in the direction of thinking putting doesn’t matter… but Scottie gained strokes on the greens in all three prior seasons (not by much, though). I know I’ve already said this several times, but he did potentially just have the best ball-striking season ever, when you consider the sample size. He’s like the first person ever to actually challenge Tiger on a meaningful all-time season-long stat in the SG era.


@matt_courchene What is ‘Strokes Gained BS’?