Interesting notes in the live blog re: course fit that makes a lot of sense. Couple things I’m watching:
Wind, obviously. Bump for Euros? Seen some people comp this to links courses.
Morikawa. His form has been meh since the Masters and might be putting it down to The Players injury but could also be due to having a kid and four rounds at Canadian good sign.
Interested on others thoughts, bets, etc.
Yeah, Ben Griffin said it was playing like a links course with Pinehurst No. 2 greens.
Can’t imagine it’s a good course for Bryson though. At least not with the wind.
Bryson in the projected bad wave too if play doesn’t get suspended, which I’m intrigued about. I wonder whether the USGA are looking for a reason (avoid ‘losing the course’) or if they want to commit to fairness with a brutal Thursday all round.
Market pricing it in with Bryson though, actually ended up with a top 5 bet on him but hopefully that’s it.
I see a number of people out there in the golf spaces talking about Cam Smith. Nope, sorry, I’m not buying that. He’d rather be off fishing, I think.
I think Morikawa has still been dealing with that back injury, so I’m not ready to back him, either.
I do like Koepka but that injury last week has me worried. Will still have a decent amount of exposure to him in DFS.
Ultimately, this week is going to be really tough and I think it could be a Fleetwood win.
Also, Patrick Reed has been playing this course a lot over the past few weeks. I’ll have him above the field.
I feel like Kawa’s injury WDs crossed over with him WD’ing after having a kid. Not sure if the injury is still bothering him but he wasn’t great in Canada.
People seem convinced Cam Smith has found his motivation again. Idk about that but his irons have been in a slump and they seem improved. His OTT level has been a struggle, even at his peak, at US Opens. I’m happy fading him but he got smashed down on the exchanges. Reed is a scarier fade but I feel like absence has made the heart grow fonder for the actual level of golfer he is currently.
Weather seemed to even out overnight then lean into a more pronounced AM/PM split again this morning. Think AM guys will actually be rooting for the PM wind to die down a little so it isn’t suspended.
We mentioned it in the live blog, but Cam seemed like he was still fighting it with the full swing. You never know how things translate to the tournament days though.
Smith is going to be fascinating to watch this week. Certainly feels like a perfect storm with a previously elite player returning to ‘form’ very recently in a small sample, mostly through short game, but flashing with irons while top 10’ing the last major. And being set up with his ‘ideal’ conditions that are likely being double and triple counted.
I’m not lying when I say there was a window this morning where Bryson was 65.0 to win and Cam Smith was 70.0.
Worth pointing out: Niemann is on six and still in the fairway on 15. Two tee shots OB and then had to hack out the rough.
Bryson with 21ft for birdie on eight.
DJ with 3ft for birdie.
Fitz with 11ft for birdie.
Be aware with the live odds is my point.
Market seems to think the course will play easier than the 2.7 projected for Rd4. Guess it is because the wind is down but will be interesting to see how/if the setup will change to maybe ramp the difficulty up in another way.
the USGA is not known for easy setups on Sunday at the US Open
Ya, was expecting the course to be crispier this morning. Disappointing.
-244 on Clark to win seems unbelievably low. He can’t hold a 6-shot lead over 18 holes 3 of 4 times? Does this seem low to anyone else? Maybe just me because I have a win ticket on him? haha.
I don’t have any particular insight into whether that price is right, wrong, or bang on but I think the difficulty of the course must increase the likelihood of a losing a lead that size, particularly when the chasing pack includes Scheffler, Fleetwood, and Xander as well as numerous others.
I am interested if the model projected the 1.37 (or 1.81 of the PM wave) scoring instead of 2.7 how Wyndham’s WinProb is changed.