I have to say that this is a very thoughtful, well-reasoned comment that I basically completely agree with.
It is true that FanDuel would probably copy right away and would not be moving on action, but I still like the idea that there is some DG sub out there with a laser-fast trigger finger is making them pay before they shift them.
I actually took to making a script that alerts me as soon as the DG 3-balls and matchups were posted for FanDuel last couple of years. Irrelevant now because there’s hardly any value at all and I’m too limited to make it worth the time.
As an aside, I think one place where DG has really shined is the outrights in between rounds. I’ve had some major success there.
Not bothered personally. All my outright bets are on the exchanges and 2-balls on Pinnacle as I’m limited/banned on every soft book.
I’m not saying a book like FD won’t adjust after we post, I’m just saying that there will now be a 10-minute window to bet on outrights, matchups, and finish positions, instead of just a 10-minute window to bet on outrights like we currently have. To clarify, right now FD posts outrights before we update, they aren’t waiting to copy that.
As for Bet365, it’s possible that us posting before they’ve posted smaller markets would have no impact on what they do, because they are very independent. But what could happen is that they post outrights, DG users bet into that, and then this informs them about what prices they need to adjust for finish position markets. And so by the time finish positions are posted the value is gone for DG users. This doesn’t require that Bet365 is even looking at our site, they are just responding to bets placed.
edit: actually looking at FD now, they don’t really update their outrights that much anyways. We still have a decent amount of EV on 6-7 guys at Corales, whereas BOL has adjusted their outright odds to the point where there is almost no EV. But then with finish positions FD does go in for the full copy pretty much (there is a small amount of EV this week – previous weeks there has been none).
Anyways, feel like we are going in circles on this a bit. I understand the points being made, appreciate the thoughtful responses.
Is it worthwhile just having a trial run of posting on a Tuesday? Perhaps not Masters week but try it for the other weeks in April and keep an eye on whether it makes any difference?
I know you cant really do this because you have subscribers but it would be totally awesome to post some fake lines and set up some huge edges like Billy Walters use to do.