Tuesday releases going forward?

At this point I’m not sure whether Datagolf has anything to lose by releasing on Tuesday

Mostly the books just wait until Datagolf releases its numbers then just copy them anyway

It’s becoming a giant game of chicken. Books releasing later and later with more and more juice

The juice is really high anyway and there’s little or no green so I’m not sure what value the subscribers are losing if the projections are released later

Is it just me or are there plenty of subscribers out there who are getting in dozens of great bets early afternoon on Mondays?

I’m not sure how a later release benefits anyone.

The market makers have their odds out before the DG release.

FanDuel have made it obvious that they don’t want to lay anything from DG, they won’t even put up any markets apart from the win until DG release and then it’s a straight copy.

Pinnacle pathetic, enough said.

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I have noticed though that the books are slightly slower if matchups are only available in the Prop Tool and the win/place odds are available in the Custom Models

You’re probably right in that I’m clutching at straws and the party is probably (mostly) over

I can’t bet against the market makers at Betfair and Sporttrade is not available in my state so I might be out of luck

I think it depends what books you rely on. FD has definitely taken a big turn for the worse this year. They still post outrights before we post but finish places seem to be a straight copy. Matchups at FD still somewhat hit or miss, but nowhere near as good as last year where they would sometimes go completely rogue with their pricing.

Bet365 is still pretty good, haven’t noticed too much of a difference compared to last year. BetCris always just does their thing, but they are sharp and have high juice. And you’ll rarely get round matchup value there (for the two reasons just mentioned).

Waiting until Tuesday would help the finish position and matchups value probably. Wouldn’t make a difference for outrights. And as I’ve said else where, books/the market are pretty in tune with our model… even when they post before us, if it’s not a big course fit week their odds will line up with ours for the most part.

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The reason that the starting odds are now so much better than they were previously is based around how most books come up with prices. They use the last available SP for the player in question and move off that. Therefore the main issue is the fact that the prices are beaten into shape by datagolf punters for previous weeks which means the bookies basis is so much better than it was previously. As someone who has been betting for years using similar methods to datagolf but before datagolf was so prevalent I have to agree with DanielSong, the party is pretty much over. Such a shame because without datagolf giving the bookies more accurate answers all this value would still be available but that’s the way of the market, it always incorporates any easily available information to make it better.

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Y’all bitch about their not being any value anywhere… but bookies always make mistakes and I find value all the time. Just because it’s red, doesn’t mean it’s a -EV bet. Be selective and when you have more conviction go hard. If you truly are a sharp golf bettor you’ll find a way to make money in the long run. Period.


I’ve made over a million pounds from gambling on golf over the last 15 years, I’m aware that bookies make mistakes but it’s only when all bookies are making mistakes that you can make serious money. If you are picking off bad prices or derivative markets you will get accounts closed very quickly.


I mean you can always claim that we should get better but it’s not that easy to find value in 1-sided markets with 20%+ juice. At that point we might as well bet on horses LOL

More on topic but I am for the Tuesday release.

Tuesday day UK time (before a Tues US release) gives me my biggest use of datagolf, by Tues evening UK time a lot of the information is already in the markets and a number of anomalies ironed out. So having that info on a Mon evening UK time is important to my process.

An earlier release is more logical to beat fanduel imo. Everyone here seems to acknowledge they cut prices and restrict people based on datagolf, so don’t see that matters whether its Mon, Tues or Wed?
But fanduel do seem to be lazier if they can get the info early enough and do a straight datagolf copy… and if you know what you are doing you should be able to find value against the datagolf pricing as the week goes on. (i’ve had some huge value bets as a result of datagolf price copies).

I know this pops up every few months or so, but I don’t think delaying until Tuesday does anything for members getting value. I said this last time the conversation happened, but once BetCris/Bookmaker posts late afternoon Tuesday (US time), they control the market and DG will have little to no impact, but the vast amount of early value is picked off. To get maximum value, you are better off releasing as early as possible and just pick off the lines that don’t follow DG (as someone mentioned, this will probably get your account limited since you are basically just steam chasing). You could delay until Wednesday and it wouldn’t really matter - books are better equipped to act quickly on the release than your average subscriber.

For example, I noticed the opposite field and euro events are only posting if “most sportsbooks have released odds” which doesn’t make sense to me. If the idea is “books will use DG so let’s have them post bad openers” - who do you think is going to be refreshing DG all day waiting for it? And if by chance a customer was able to act on DG release faster than the books could adjust, they are either 1) going to limit your account because they know you are tailing DG or 2) that customer is going to move the market before any other customers can do anything. So either the books do care about DG and delaying is only delaying the initial release and reaction anyway, or they don’t care and then releasing later really makes no sense.

I think if DG was looking to have more long-term value from a betting perspective, they would stop the entire “betting tools” section. When you hand that to bookmakers, they are smart enough to use it. If there was only the player decomp or even the pre-tournament predictions, books might be lazy enough to not try and price DG in.

Anyways, I don’t think delaying does anything and would prefer things carry on as-is

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Pretty much agree with this 100%, also a UK punter who relies on the Monday release to spread my bets around.

Unless Matt and Will can write to Ben Coley, Bradley Todd, RickRunGood and all the other tipsters/data guys who influence the market and tell them also not to post anything until Tuesday, there’s no point.

I mean, I think we provide pretty different value than any of those people listed (I don’t know who Bradley Todd is, though). I haven’t seen any other public models that are any good; obviously Coley and others are giving tips so that is different. RickRunGood has just copied our site as far as I can tell, down to the names of pages and colour scheme. But I don’t think he has a model that is doing anything to the market; it’s more research tools, like Fantasy National.

To take Fanduel as an example, I think if we posted Tuesday morning we’d show value for outrights, finish positions, and matchups. Whereas right now we only get outrights, and then the others are just a straight copy when they are released early Tuesday. Your argument that the value would get picked off before we post doesn’t really make sense to me; we are already posting our outright numbers after the books have been up several hours, or more, in the UK, and there is still value, especially on big course fit weeks. I don’t think this value disappears until we post.


My thought was that there’s a crossover point to where people who have enough people following them to where they get the odds cut will tip golfers who would be green on datagolf, thus reducing or potentially eliminating value on those players immediately. That’ll be more likely for the golfers at the front end of the market; on an average week there may well be ten golfers at 100/1+ who DG make more than 10% EV if you’re backing them each way and literally not one tipster will have backed them.

The market is certainly more embryonic on a Monday than it would be on a Tuesday, and of course if you do get your bets in early then occasionally you’re going to benefit from high value players in the field withdrawing as has happened this week in the Puntacana.

I think if you’re delaying to try and get value at Fanduel it’ll turn into a game of chicken where they’d kill off those side markets until you show your hand.

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I think you are idealizing bookmakers. Most of them are very lazy – Fanduel will copy us if they can, but if not they’ll just copy another book or post crazy numbers (they seem to be doing less of the latter this year, unfortunately). If we waited until Tuesday to post, most books aren’t just going to keep waiting even if they care about our numbers – customers want to bet with them and so it’s (presumably) somewhat costly to hold out for a day. It’s also the case that most of these books don’t react that quickly to things. There are exceptions – like BetOnline, Pinnacle – but lots of books just don’t move their golf lines that quickly. Also, most people that subscribe to our site bet at soft books (I assume, I don’t actually have data on it).

As said above, I think if we waited until Tuesday or whenever most markets are posted, we would show value (for a short time, admittedly) in most markets, instead of just outright markets and the few other markets that some books post early. And I think there are lots of books that move slow enough (Bet365, for example) for people to have time to get bets in. Of course there aren’t many sharp bettors that have accounts at 365, but I’ve had one for years (making a few grand per year, placing lots of bets and not betting much per bet). Point being it’s important to consider the behaviour of soft books in all of this, too. As others have pointed out I could be wrong on this: maybe by Tuesday morning much of the value our model would have shown on Monday would be gone. It probably depends what type of week it is, and where/why our model is finding value.

Re Betcris, I’m not sure I’d describe it quite the way you have. If we posted after Betcris, I’m pretty sure Betonline’s prices would move towards us. I follow matchup markets very closely and have analyzed our price data a couple times, and prices at sharp books like Betonline don’t converge completely to Betcris. It’s usually more like a 60% move towards them, and often it will move back towards our number, or there will be a back and forth. If we show a big discrepancy with Betcris, it will tend to move towards us (not much, but on average it moves). Not sure what my point is here though, I agree that there wouldn’t be any reason to wait until after Betcris posts.

Anyways, all this being said, we probably won’t move to a Tuesday release anytime soon. We get very few complaints from subscribers around not finding value (most of the discussion I’ve been involved in on this issue has been in this forum). I do think the value our model provides is more than just these early value picks – in golf, more than other sports, it seems like it’s hard to use the sharp bookmakers to price the fair line. This is mainly because the sharp golf books just don’t offer that many bet types / bets. So it’s useful to have our model as a source of “truth” (even though it’s not the truth, obviously) to price some prop or matchup that isn’t offered anywhere else.


Well I think you are proving my point here. Bookmakers are lazy - so why do you hand them the tools to do their job? If FD is just going to copy DG or BOL if DG isn’t out, you are just letting a few people get down at FD (and promptly limited) before some subscribers hit BOL and then move the market. I have no clue what books your average customer gets down at, but it’s mostly irrelevant to the market impact. Who matters are the customers who immediately max bet all the green at BOL and move the market on Monday afternoon/evenings. Rest assured you have somebody who does exactly that and ruins any edge for everyone else. The lag between release to the market drying up and adjusting isn’t instant, obviously, but delaying doesn’t really change the overall impact, it just moves it over a bit.

To your second and third points, with all due respect, I think you are over-estimating your market impact. DG has an instant impact because it comes out so early. The above scenario happens every week and as someone who tries to have minimal market impact, I just let it happen and make my plays accordingly. If we are aligned (or I expect we will be), I try and get as much down as I can before the first betting matchup tool drops. If we are opposite but I expect to be aligned with BM/Cris, I hit after you drop but before they release on Tuesdays. If I’m on an island, I’ll just wait as long as I can to get maximum volume.

I just don’t see DG dropping on Wednesday morning and massively moving the market. The market is too liquid and too much of the low-hanging fruit edge has been picked off already. DG is so useful Monday’s early because no one has attacked anything yet. As you get later in the week (and into mid-round stuff), the market is really sharp and you have to be doing something different to have long-term edge. As an example, DG routinely has plays showing huge edges during R4 and it’s because DG is missing something, not the market. I’ve ever done the analysis, but I’m really confident that would be some adverse selection playing those greens.

All that said, it’s really unfair to compare DG to Coley or DFS touts. Coley mostly just impacts the UK market (pinny and bf) but he’s nothing relative to DG. I’m sure there are some touts out there who people are tailing and maybe not completely scams, but I don’t know them and I highly doubt they are having market impact.

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Lol RickRunGood. No surprise there.

More broadly though, it is clear to me that there is a trade off to consider when deciding when to post. It seems like opinions differ on how to proceed, and the degree to which DG influences the market (I will keep my opinions on both of these to myself), but

  1. A later post forces bookmakers to post lines without the aid of DG, and in-so-doing take some more risk. The extent to which this opportunity can be realized by subscribers obviously depends on a number of things.

  2. A later post incurs an opportunity cost. There is time when good prices are available, but subscribers do not have the information they need to trade on the good prices.

So there is a tradeoff and hence an equilibrium somewhere. FWIW the idea that that DG does not influence the market is not consistent with my experience as a bettor at all. I understand that it is not the only thing that influences the market but it definitely matters.

Ok, I do get your point now – you are saying that any book that decides to copy DG is a lost cause for DG subs. If we post early, they copy. If we post after they post, and you manage to hammer a few lines, they’ll realize what you are doing and limit you. So therefore our posting decision should not depend on these books, which leads you to the conclusion that we should post as early as possible because that’s best for the only books we should care about: the ones not paying attention to us.

And so I guess I have a couple points. First, this logic doesn’t really apply to the books that don’t limit but do copy us (aside: does BOL limit? I don’t know). Look at BOL on our site right now for the Euro event. For outrights there was a decent amount of value, and now for T20s (which were posted later) there is nothing. If we posted on Tuesday morning, maybe BOL has T20s up by then and people can probably grab some value there. Or maybe that value would be wiped out by non-DG people by then, or maybe BOL just waits and doesn’t post T20s until we do. I don’t know, but seems possible a later release would be beneficial there. I would apply this same logic to Pinnacle, who know doesn’t post until Tuesday morning: if we held off and waited until they post, would that be useful for our subs? Maybe.

Second, I think there are a lot of books in between the two types you describe (“copy DG” and “ignore DG”). For example, I think if we posted our numbers right when Bet365 posted their outrights (but hadn’t posted some of their other markets yet, so Monday morning UK time), I think this would have an impact on the numbers they end up posting for the finish positions. And this would be bad for DG users. I also think this might be the case with FD: if they were forced to post all their markets before we do, that would probably be good for our subscribers. I honestly don’t think FD is spending much energy trying to limit DG subs – they are just lazy and it’s easy for them to copy us if they can. There are tradeoffs here in terms of the value that gets eroded, but I think it’s possible the late post makes a difference.

As for market influence, I do think we would some influence even later in the week. The recent blog post we did analyzed line movement, so could be worth skimming the last two sections if you haven’t seen it. That’s where I pulled the 60% number from (and that is comparing BOL openers to Betcris, so it likely overstates the movement of BOL to Betcris). Honestly, I just don’t often see the closing lines that far from our numbers, so unless DG subscribers are somehow repeatedly out-betting the whales, it must be that our model is pretty good. I’m not saying there aren’t ever +EV bets at close at BOL/Pinnacle/Betcris, because there are, but it’s pretty rare for there to be a >10% edge. (This is all regarding matchup markets only.) As for mid-tournament, it’s pretty rare for us to even have a single +EV bet at Betcris on round matchups, and they are generally taken to be the sharp book. With R4 matchups/outrights involving players near the lead, you could be right. We re-analyzed our pressure adjustments this off-season and did make some tweaks that I thought brought us closer to the market, but I know last week there was a big disagreement with Schenk/Simpson, and there have been a few others.

Another point in favour of us having late influence (not a ton necessarily, just some) is that bookmakers over the last few years have started opening a lot closer to our numbers (before we’ve posted anything for the week). This is probably another sign that the market from the previous weeks is closing near our numbers (if they are basing the opening number for the next week off last week’s close). If there were all these sharps massively influencing things late in the week, I feel like this wouldn’t be the case – they should be opening up the following week (ignoring course-specific considerations) at the numbers the sharps pushed things towards.


Second paragraph - this is mostly irrelevant, because it just becomes a race of “who can hit BOL first?” As I mentioned, someone is playing BOL on Monday afternoon/evenings and moving the market (or Dave Mason is constantly F5ing DG). No reason to think that changes when you move the timeline. I guess maybe there are some derivatives that don’t move quite as quick, but that’s questionable at best.

Third paragraph - I suppose that’s true, but again assuming they are copying you, why do they suddenly not adjust prices when you release? Is FD just going to let DG users blast them when before they would wait to post until DG did? The biggest value here is for non-DG users (or people making their own numbers) as the market is just less efficient. I guess I just can’t wrap my head around, for example, FD - who is (according to you) intentionally waiting for DG to post and then copying. Just because you are posting 24 hours later, they just ignore the DG numbers? It doesn’t make sense

And I wasn’t trying to imply that DG has no edge or market impact - quite the opposite. But later in the week, there has been massive volume bet into the market and DG (and it’s subscribers) are now just a much smaller portion of that, whereas the guy blasting BOL on Monday’s is a huge percentage at that time.

As for the comment about about closing lines, that’s a separate discussion. Now you are talking about CLV and not market impact. If I released my fairs publicly on Monday, I couldn’t reasonably expect to have any plays on Wednesday - and the ones that I did are almost definitely because I’m missing something the market is picking up. This is true of DG too. There are no real value plays at post because all the edge has been bet. That does confirm that the market is leveraging DG fairs, but that doesn’t really point to delaying the release for any reason that I can see?

Your final comment is more about the entire golf market itself sharpening up. There’s so much more data available than when I started betting this even just 4 years ago.

I wasn’t really trying to poo poo on DG, as I am a very happy subscriber and think it is certainly the best publicly available model out there. My point was that because DG has established itself, subs just cannot reasonably expect a large window to get down anymore. That’s true whether you release on Monday, Tuesday, or two weeks in advance.