Pre-tournament, Zalatoris had a higher win expectancy than Fitzpatrick according to the DG model.

Zalatoris also has a better course fit than Fitzpatrick according to DG.

Heading into the final round both at -4, Fitzpatrick has a higher win probability than Zalatoris according to the model.

What goes into this? Pressure tool? Putting regression from Zalatoris?

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I gave both players a 23% chance to win going into the final round

Zalatoris was also favored in the matchup according to the books

Not sure what’s happening with the model but I will be rooting for the American

We update skill once the tournament starts differently based on performance in the SG categories, and a few other things. Some details here.

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Sure hope you hopped on Fitz at +380 in that case!

So, is the TL;dr of this (I actually read it, just trying to distill) that because Zalatoris was putting better relative to baseline skill and Fitzpatrick was better OTT relative to baseline, Fitzpatrick gets a bigger boost in-tournament?

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I did. Didn’t bet big though. It was a good bet but outrights only make up a small portion of my golf portfolio.

Where I did bet big was on the individual round scores on Saturday. Thank you DG for the wonderful head fake

In my opinion the single most unsustainable stat isn’t the putting, it’s the strokes gained approach

When a guy goes super low they score something like +5 SG: Approach and every single iron shot ends up right next to the hole. Not even a robot can do that every time so you know that luck is involved

Yeah I wouldn’t bet much based on our scoring projection, especially at a US Open. We are just projecting based on historical scoring data (when available) plus the scoring so far in the tournament, and also weather forecast (i.e. wind). But we aren’t accounting for potentially firming up of the course for example (or the USGA just deciding they want the course to be hard that day).

Not saying you’re wrong, and I get anecdote is not data, but the low score on Sunday (Hideki) was due to SG: Putting… close to 5 strokes gained.

Yeah and in the meantime Keegan made nothing, probably cost him the tournament
When someone goes super low it’s either the approach or putting or both. Rare to see someone pick up more than +2 SG on driving or around the green (well unless you hole out 4 times like Rory did in the Masters final round)

FYI I learned that the course setup was rigged, USGA watered the golf course in the middle of the round on Day 2 and Day 4 so it would play easier in the afternoon

Saturday was quite hard though

I really doubt the USGA would “rig” the course in the middle of the day, with cameras on, during their biggest championship of the year. From what I saw they just gave it a tiny sprinkle of water, nowhere near enough to make a big difference. They probably got a concerning moisture reading or something on a couple greens.

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Um they would do that
The most notorious example was during the 2004 US Open when they watered the greens in the middle of the final round
The course played 3 strokes easier for the final 5 groups compared to the rest of the field

But they aren’t ‘rigging’ the course Daniel. In 2004 they completely lost the greens and were desperately trying to save it. This year they probably thought it was on the edge and so decided to water it. I’m fairly certain they weren’t intending to give the afternoon wave a course that played easier than the morning, they just wanted to avoid a situation where the course deteriorates to the point where it’s unfair.

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You could also just watch the tournament and observe that the balls reacted the same way when hitting the greens as they did for the morning wave. It was clearly not easier in the afternoon and clearly nothing like 2004.

With that said, it seemed overly cautious from the USGA, but I am not a horticulturist.

I did watch and disagree on both counts, but oh well

It was a profitable week so no harm no foul

I don’t know why I am even arguing about this, because I agree that letting the course play firmer would have been way more fun and been a better setup, but can you find even a single example of a shot that held the green in the afternoon on either of those days that would not have in the morning?

I would be very surprised, given that they put water down before the AM guys teed off as well.