Zurich Classic Methodology

@will_courchene @matt_courchene

I’m sure these one off formats like this week and the Matchplay are a pain, but I’m just curious if you can provide insights for how the pre-tournament model and fantasy projections take into account both the team & the scoring changes (if I remember correctly, you have historically offered fantasy projections for this week, which I assume takes into account the format differences, but just checking).

Additionally, what has typically been best for success? I could envision multiple ways this could go. For instance, highest SG: Total floor of the two players (for alternate shot); highest SG: Total for the team (overall and best ball); or even how BoB or BoW come into play as we alternate through the weekend.

I guess the first paragraph is for Will and Matt, but the second paragraph is for anyone on how they approach this week and what seems to be a prevailing team composition for success

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My $.02 on this if that for the 4 ball rounds total SG for the two players is going to be the best, while for alternate shot you should be looking at the SG average of the two players.

Why is there no match-up and prop tool for the Zurich?

Just because the team element creates a lot of headaches for us. The custom H2H tool is working though (but only pre-tournament, we won’t be covering the event live).

hey Matt any chance showdown projections will be available? know it’s a headache type of week, but think you guys had them last year. thanks!

I don’t think so… just a bridge too far for us. This weeks stinks. I don’t think we had SD projections last year either.

You think so? Shouldn’t the 4 Ball SG be sligthly better, than what the better Player would have, or am I missunderstanding your point? Would be keen to see which players overperform in this format and which players underperform…

Everybody should be taking the week off. This tournament sucks!


Anybody that had a decent model that made predictions at the shot level would clean up this week. I would assume that the better teams have the bigger advantage in alt shot especially over teams with a one strong and one week player compared to best ball.

Surprisingly the benefit of having 1 good player / 1 bad player versus 2 average players in better-ball doesn’t really kick in unless the skill gap is pretty huge:

This is from an old Ryder Cup blog post. I think the 2nd point in the right plot being higher than the 3rd point was just simulation error.

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