Surely, the masters is worthy a thread of it’s own.
Curious about Henley’s DG odds. In the top 10 now on DG for the first time so the 90x something (exchanges) you can get must be deep green, even if Scottie is soaking up value.
Either way I’m happy with that, but Scottie @11.3x placed way back in October obviously is what really gets me excited. Decent amount on it too.
Hope Fuzzy is ready to be consigned to the dustbin of history by Ludvig.
Feels tough to see past the big four of Scheffler, Rory, X and Rahm. The two disgusting clicks I made were Hatton and Homa. I don’t buy the ‘hates Augusta’ and ‘can’t play in Majors’ stuff. Double the price of Zalatoris ffs.
I believe there will be good value initially in the T10/T20/T30/T40 markets. Going to be targeting guys in the 50-100 outright range. The typical losers like Young, Finau, Henley, Conners, Si Woo who are destined to T12.
Outrights so far: Schauffele (25-1) placed the Monday after the Players and Finau (50-1) placed during the Houston Open.
So excited for this week. Enjoy it!
Forecast is calling for heavy downpours Thursday morning. Cool and windy Friday and then warm and sunny with light winds Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully not too much rain and its playing firm and fast by the weekend giving JT Poston a chance to contend.
It looks like they are forecasting up to an inch of rain on Thursday, which is frustrating. Think 2017 was probably the last Masters that wasn’t affected by weather?
I can’t get behind the Will Z hype this week. I like him a lot… but he’s basically being treated like Brooks in terms of expected major over-performance. Based on 10 majors played.
Not sure I will be fading Zalatoris but in terms of chances to win, I am with you.
He has averaged +1.8 short game (ARG+PUTT) strokes gained per round in his 8 rounds played at Augusta. It doesn’t seem like his game is currently in a spot he can come close to replicating that.
Looking at Skill Decomp and Course Fit, driving accuracy is a weird/unintuitive one looking at Christo Lamprecht. Driving accuracy isn’t as important at Augusta is what I’m reading based on the Course Fit radar, and Lamprecht has low driving accuracy, that give him +0.21 SG adjustment? Conversely, Si Woo Kim who has high accuracy gets -0.19 SG adjustment in the decomposition. Its unintuitive to me that having higher accuracy is penalising
yeah basically when a skill is less important at a course, players who are good at that skill lose their edge/advantage.
So basically an accurate driver of the ball will have his advantage on courses where it’s crucial to be accurate off the tee. But like you said at Augusta where driving accuracy is less important, players who drive the ball all over the place get a bump because the miss fairway penalty is lesser at Augusta.
Basically …
Driving accuracy is less important, so not being accurate is less penalizing, so not accurate drivers get a smaller disadvantage, so accurate drivers’ advantage is reduced.
EDIT : Same thing can be observed with putting. At courses where they play very flat and easy greens, elite putters lose a big part of their advantage because everyone and their moms can have a good week and make it rain on greens where every putt is straight and flat. It’s not as simple as that …but that’s the idea.
Hatton and Henley seem way too low in the odds for just how good of players they are, Henley with the great Masters history as well. Hatton can sort of be explained with his poor history but 80 is quite high.
Schauffele is another (I got him at 18) who is being way undervalued in my opinion for how good he is. 6 of last 8 events top 10, DG has him at #2 overall and he was not given odds that way.
I also took a punt on Bryson at 45, he is a different golfer now than he has been in the past when lots of his bad Masters history came from. He seems calmer and smarter about things and more repeatable, less trying to make a point. I actually suspect his DG numbers are underselling his recovery and current level, he’s ranked 21st there but I think somehow his LIV numbers are compressed a bit. Bryson and Xander are both trending upwards heading into Augusta.
also on the putting bit, is there any way to sort courses by where putting matters a lot? feels like almost every course putting matters the same amount, I mean even Augusta is the same.
I know the general idea is maybe the greens are somehow so tough it evens things out, but people say that about easy greens as well. are there actually any courses where good putters get a big advantage?
Lag putting seems to be much more difficult at Augusta, rivaled only by Sedgefield on tour. Hit the putt with the wrong speed and a 30 footer could run 20 feet past the hole or end up 20 feet short.
Thursday will very tough if they are able to get in any play. Friday will be playable but forecasted to be very windy. Saturday morning will likely play very easy. So possible that some of the groupings will have a huge advantage. The majority of the favorites have tee times at back end of Round 1. This is who I think has the best chance of playing their second rounds in the easier Saturday morning conditions.
I think you have that backwards. It looks like the majority of the favorites have tee times at the back end of Round 2 (Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Rahm, Matsuyama). The tee time structure is unique at the Masters in that the best groupings in the PM are very last on the tee sheet. Probably for TV purposes.
If play is delayed significantly on Thursday, the AM/PM “wave” would be the ones finishing their 2nd rounds on Saturday morning as they are scheduled to be last out on Friday.
It will all depend on how much they can play Thursday.
I should have said the back end of the Round 1 morning wave so we are in agreement.
Is there anywhere on site that shows the estimate cut score? I know it’s available once the model goes live but didn’t know if it was pre-tournament.
Only in live model, but I just did an early run. This is based on R1 scoring avg of +1.9 and R2 scoring avg of +1.2… which are basically educated guesses.
Sam Burns’ wife is even more pregnant than Scottie’s wife, with a due date of under 10 days from now. Both have stated that they will WD if their respective wife goes in to labor.
Apologies if I missed this elsewhere in this thread or one of the others, but I just learned this and thought I’d share in case others haven’t -
It’s Top 50 make the cut, but the old “also within 10 shots” rule does NOT apply anymore.
Yeah, I think the last time they had the 10 strokes rule was pre-COVID.
