Newish user here.
Ive been putting bets for 3 weeks now in all tours based soley on DG information always taking Positive EV or DG favorites. Ive noticed that the data is a lot more accurate on the PGA than all others with the worst being the Korn Ferry tour. Its been 3 week were the favorite by DG has not even tracked the top 10 for that specific week. Is there anyone else that can provide me information as to why or if I am just having bad luck ?
The more i can learn the better.
Thanks
By “favorite” on KFT, do you mean the biggest +EV guys (who are almost exclusively longshots), or the guys we have as most likely to win?
Goes without saying that 3 weeks is far too small a sample to be analysing your results. You need to be collecting results over months and years.
And just because a guy is favourite is no guarantee he’ll finish top 10. Just look at his top 10 odds to work out the likelihood of that.
Favorite to win meaning what DG has as a favorite.
Completely agree, Ive been running data on others sports for longer periods, but the comparison was just so drastic I needed to ask the question.
PGA and DP have been mostly consistent. KFT has been all sorts of whack, especially considering that the golfers I picked were HEAVY favorited by DG but sportsbook odds didn’t reflect that.
A lot more variance in golf than other sports.
I don’t understand. On the KFT we are always very low on the favourites (this week our highest win probability was 3.5% for Widing, which was actually a bit of an outlier – next highest is only 2.2%). The sportsbooks are always much higher on the KFT favourites.
It’s a bad idea in general to just blindly bet on favourites, and it’s a particularly bad idea for the KFT.
edit: if by “favourited by DG” you do mean the big +EV bets, then you have to remember that even big +EV longshots won’t hit very often.
All of the tours use the same base model; I assume KFT is probably the most profitable just because the odds are the softest.
I am new to golf I don’t really understand the different tours, I stated that. I’m coming in with a fresh set of eyes comparing to other betting strategies I have.
For KFT I would bet the DG favorite not by percentage but by odds shown in the “Finishing Position” tool.
The point is you shouldn’t be betting the favourites unless they are +EV (green), which is rarely the case for the KFT.
I’ve used this site for close to 4 years and over my first year, my ROI was about 25% for the DP World Tour and 0% for the PGA Tour over about 1,000 bets. Since then it’s been more even. Not worth reading anything into it
Thanks for your fresh set of eyes.
My ROI right now is 60.99 over 2 months. What were you doing that the results changed so drastic ? I play mostly EV or favorites if it makes sense.
How would you recommend to do the research on KFT or DP ? I seem to be having good “luck” with the information provided by DG on the PGA being accurate, but those other tours have a lot more variance, anything you recommend ?
Maybe read through some of the replies people have given you so far, I don’t really understand what your strategy has been. You keep saying you like to “bet on favourites”. Why would you do this? If a bet is negative EV, don’t bet on it, unless you have some reasoning of your own that makes it +EV.
Anyways, you’ll need to accept that there is basically nothing to glean from a few months of betting results as it relates to your strategy, there is just too much noise.
Not every non-ev bet is a bad bet. You gotta realize there’s more than 1 sharp book. I devig to different books depending on the market and sport with research I have done that have made me profitable.
Kim was a very negative ev-play to win 3rd round. But it was almost a sure bet to do it since the lead was so much and the round was almost over I was able to get it for a 50% ROI. Cant just follow one rule, doesnt apply to everything. Gotta be able to read the market better not just EV vs Non-Ev.
Heh, ok.
It’s too bad Daniel Song isn’t still active in here, he’d be a worthy adversary for you.
Doesn’t sound like you need any assistance. Also you ROI is killer. Just keep doing what you are doing.
I didn’t do anything differently. I had bad luck my first year betting PGA Tour and good luck betting DP World Tour, and then it evened out over the course of thousands of more bets. Much like how your ROI will regress to a more realistic number
Thats good to know. The difference in tours still baffles me, but I’m new to golf.