Am I Doing Something Wrong?

General Discussion
#1

Hey all, new scratch member this year and after TOC and Sony, I’ve been getting killed betting matchups, to win, top places, etc. Am I doing something wrong or is it just bad variance this month in the DG model? I do not currently do my own modeling and am following the suggestions in the DG FAQ regarding the edges to play for matchups and other bets. Just trying to figure it out, thanks for any feedback

#2

Probably just bad variance, although you never know – maybe our model is less profitable this year. Which book are you betting with / when are you betting during the week? Here are our betting results from last year.

The model has been profitable at pretty much every book over the last 3 years for all bet types. Here is a blog looking at '19/'20 matchup results. I am working on a similar blog for 2021 at the moment; results were slightly better. The hardest places to make money will be Betcris, Pinnacle, and BetOnline. The latter two books mainly because they copy us aggressively.

#3

Thanks for the reply, unfortunately I only play at DK so I do realize that will limit some opportunities. I’m trying to basically bet when lines open (to win, top 5, top 10, top 20 and even the occasional top 40). I’ll play matchups and 3 balls almost instantly when listed. Both tournament and round by round. Same thing for the euro Tournament. Are there certain types of bets or certain times (pre tourney vs In tourney) that are historically better?

Thanks again

#4

Gotta have multiple books

#5

Don’t disagree with that, but if I’m using the DK numbers and the ones that show value according to DG model then theoretically they should be long term winners. I’m sure it’s just small sample size so I shouldn’t be worried, thanks!

1 Like
#6

Yes the earlier the better for timing. Last year we were really solid on matchups and 3-balls. 3-balls especially have shown to be the weakest lines across all books. The year before we did very well on T20s, too. But in recent years the market is aligning with our numbers more closely so there are fewer T20 bets to make most weeks. Also obviously the longer the odds you are betting, the larger is the role for variance to play.

#7

Hey bosox,

I’m fairly new to the model too–started around the time of last year’s Tour Championship. Through the end of the calendar year I managed to triple my starting bankroll. The first few of events this calendar year haven’t been as profitable.

I think your last post is spot on. Play the long game. I’m pretty confident that a well managed application of the DG model should work out in the long run.

Cheers.

#8

Good to hear, thank you…I may be new to this model but not new to sports betting In general so I’m confident it’ll end up going well.

#9

Model wasn’t as good last January 2021 too - variance probably

1 Like
#10

The first few events are also weird formats (2/3 courses). In a model where there is very little manual adjustment its pretty hard to account for course changes (especially in match-ups). Most guys I know take a mixture of pre-tournament predictions and then update throughout for matchup projections. That becomes difficult if we don’t have shot tracking on all courses.

Someone who played Torrey north and putted horrible on day 1 but is historically a good putter is going to show value on day 2 match-ups since you can’t account for the bad putting via shot tracking.

#11

I strictly use DG numbers and I bet a lot of volume. I have been absolutely crushing it this year.

Harold Varner +1800 winner
Luke List +9000 winner
Cam Smith +2500 winner

I was also able to get some +EV numbers following early rounds with these guys.

Matchups you do have to be careful - I would not be betting against Hao Tong Li or Andrea Pavan right now - they are playing better than their atrocious recent results can account for.

I also bet Top 5, 10, 20s and while I don’t have it broken down by category I feel extremely confident in saying that DG’s numbers will win you money in the long term.

Better luck going forward.

1 Like
#12

Thanks, my results have been OK (not great) but I did get on the winners you mentioned

For the matchups let’s give heads up for the handful of golfers who are crushing the Data Golf projections

#13

Thanks for all the feedback, I definitely had a better week this week overall, hitting the HV3 helped and was positive in matchups for all 3 tourneys…I have no doubt it will be a profitable golf season!

1 Like