Quick question about the course history component this week. Looking at the Match Play decomposition, seems course history adjustments might be off? Scheffler has a negative adjustment. Bezuidenhout has been awful here and has the largest positive adjustment.
Yep you are right. There is a problem with the last 2 years of data. Fuck – thanks for the heads up, will re-run sims shortly. Won’t make a huge difference, but things will change a bit.
The histories are only using the group play data as it’s more reliable (as there is a larger sample size for estimating SG). Scheffler’s new course history is only slightly positive (he a bad round in 2021 in group play).