Hi Guys
In the FAQ you mention that you are adjusting your betting threshold to a higher amount from what is was previously (24 June 0.08 minimum), however in your betting results page it shows you are betting on much lower thresholds, some are displaying as EV 0.00 (Although I realize this is still a bet with +EV)
May 24 - Outright - Hughes, Mackenzie - 201.0 (0.50%) - 0.59% - 0.01 - 0.00
What is the logic behind these seemingly low EV bets?
BTW, thank you for all the hard work behind DG and the functionality of the site as well, its great value for money.
I am addicted to this site right now.
Hey, so the threshold referenced in the FAQ is 8 percent. In the Hughes bet, expected value in percentage terms is equal to 0.0059/0.0050 - 1 = 18%. And then the expected value that is listed takes into account the bet size, so in this case it would be .18 * .01 = 0.0018 (which got rounded down to zero when displayed).
For reference, the thresholds we are using now are around 5% for matchups, 7% for 3-balls, and anywhere from 10%-30% for T20s/T5s/Outrights depending how long the odds are (in general, the threshold is increasing as a function of the odds).
Hopefully that makes sense. Thanks for using the site and for the kind words!
Yes, that makes perfect sense.
I was under the assumption that the EV displayed was the line difference EV. It makes sense to display the EV of the bet though.
It makes sense to raise the threshold for longer odds as well, pretty difficult to realise the expectation of 3000/1 spots unless we can live a few lifetimes and have a guarantee that we can always have access to those in the future.
Would you be OK if I started a diary in the forums of my attempt at betting golf using Datagolf and my own betting strategy?
I was a professional poker player/coach/staker for 7 years so I think I can make it interesting and might engage some people to take action in regards to membership.
Edit: If that’s OK what category would I start that thread under? Maybe a general results diary in the general discussion and a more detailed analysis in the scratch members area?
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I think that’d be really cool!
Yeah I guess create it in “general discussion” for now and we can always transfer it if a more suitable category ever emerges.
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I’ve actually had some success betting on players to make the cut at minus odds, usually prices ranging from -150 to -400.
I’ve also found that the books juice the favorites a lot. When I get the rare opportunity I pounce, I’m guessing the pros are using a similar strategy.
Easiest way to make money is to identify big favorites that are great value and bet big.