Suggest a thread is needed on bookmaker market changes.
The prompt for me is that 365 is offering more than 100 players in each of the PGA and Euro Tour finish position markets. Scary how little value is in the market when compared to DG probabilities but hopefully a sign of more lines being offered for more players.
365 now have three ball handicap odds. Feel like there is value here.
On a custom match-up, you can include a handicap - is it possible to include the functionality in the custom three ball page too?
365 have an over/under on pars, birdies, eagles and bogeys per player for today’s first round of LIV.
Loving these new markets - can’t help but think that these markets are an opportunity for DG now that outrights and position markets are less valuable for betting purposes. Do you model at a particular hole level in your sims?
Ancer has played 20 competitive rounds in Mayakoba. He has had 200 pars giving an average of 12.5 pars to the tournament average of 10.5 pars. He averages less than one bogey per round. In this market, he is priced at 1.83 for over 10.5 pars and at 1.72 for under 2.5 bogeys. Strikes me as decent value on each of those.
Much prefer forward looking projections obviously…
You have Bet365 access and you aren’t finding much value? I feel like there is still a decent number of bets to be made each week on the main tours if you are betting EWs, matchups/3-balls, miss cuts.
But no doubt the hole-level stuff could present new opportunities. Especially if it’s something that needs to be updated throughout the round – harder for books to copy us on that.
On the PGA tour, value on 365 is slim for me and eroded quickly compared to 12 or 18 months ago. It’s not a criticism of DG, rather an indication of how they are using your methods or you directly.
I’ve given up outright EWs due to the variance of returns. Matchups tend to show value when DG takes a position against a player that the bookie prices according to the best of their ability. I’ve too many scars of betting against Reed, Leishman. Kisner, Wolff and being trounced. First round 3Balls can be valuable and missed cuts are definitely good. Top 20/30/40 value has been quite rare for me recently.
I tend to focus on the Finish Position market and it is very lucrative on the European tour but difficult to find value on the PGA tour - this week only Vegas held value and even then it was marginal. The other regular source of value is top nationality or region bets. Still value there.
Again, this is relative to the halcyon days of seas of green so my view on value is tempered by that.
I’ve been relatively successful on the European Tour recently and LIV / Asia tour is now getting more markets when the LIV players play there so much more value.
My understanding is a lot of the newer markets on 365 are actually been provided by Mustard analysis in London. 3Ball Par 3/4/5 scoring, handicaps, individual player scoring must have value given the amount of markets and the impossibility of them doing individual analysis for each player to price. The Broadie player variance analysis would likely point to value for instance.