Hey guys, loving the live blogs!
Matt’s post about the adjustments made to a player’s baseline skill based on how course fit (and wave split) can confound their performance in prior rounds made me wonder: could the pressure effects also potentially confound baseline skill estimates?
Is it possible that for players like Scottie & Ben Griffin who have been leading or near the lead frequently as of late that this could lead to under-estimating their baseline skill?
I believe that if a player leads after Round 3 then we would expect their total True SG to be +0.4 higher in Round 4 than it actually was. Not sure if this would end up making a huge difference when estimating baseline skill (perhaps only in extreme cases where guys have been leading a lot recently).