I am looking for golf statistics similar to FIP or BABIP in baseball that can help identify players who may have different luck in the future.
Russell Henley currently has 1.49 expected wins in 2021, but 0 actual wins in 2021.
Is this data (expected wins) information that may help us identify golfers who have been unlucky or is there no predictive power with this statistic?
Also, is there a way to see where the expected wins have come from for each golfer? For example, how did Henley arrive at 1.49 expected wins this season.
Henley played well at the CJ Cup in 2020 but finished T-3 which accounts for most of the Expected Wins. He had another great performance in the Match Play but got eliminated in the Group Stages.
Basically it’s a stat created to account for “bad beats”, like when Jack lost to Tom Watson in the 1977 British Open or when Phil lost to Henrik in the 2017 Open Championship.
It’s kind of fun because people like to talk about how unlucky Greg Norman was and how lucky Nick Faldo was. Both true and both probably should have won about 4 majors but luck is part of the game and makes the sport more entertaining to follow.
I mean, no one thinks Brooks is twice as good as DJ or just as good as Rory but that’s just the nature of the game.