Is there anywhere on the site I can see probability of being in the top 5 for first round leader rather than just being outright first round leader?

Eg for this weeks Memorial Tournament Jason Day is rated both a 1% chance of outright win and also first round leader. His top 5 outright probability is 5.5% but am curious what his first round leader top 5 probability might be. I expect a more varied distribution for 1 round than 4, but not sure how much

There isn’t a way of simulating this right now on the site. Maybe we could add an option to see the probabilities of more outcomes on the my-model page, or one of the other custom simulation pages (perhaps the props page…).

You are correct that the first round Top 5 (like the first round leader) probabilities will just show more parity – i.e. probability goes down for top players compared to their weeklong odds and up for the lower-ranked players. I don’t think there will be a simple adjustment factor you could apply. As you move to higher finish position cutoffs (e.g. top 10, 20) eventually Jason Day’s round 1 probability will move below his 4-round probability because he is in the upper part of the skill distribution this week.

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I gave this some more thought. Not being a golf expert limits my thinking… but first round theres no play off, no pressure of getting over the line, in many cases no idea of who else is right up there i guess.

So is the probability of top 5 in first round leader any different to 5 times the probability of being frl? Someone is exactly 1% to be frl, would they not be 5% for top 5 at end of first round?

Maybe slight differences for the top players who if they are having an on day would be more likely to go clear, but not much i don’t think

No, it can’t be additive. I’m sure there is a clean statistical explanation but I can’t think of it exactly right now… something to do with how a normal distribution decreases very quickly in the tails, I think. But you know it can’t be additive because probabilities need to be 0 and 1; if a player has an FRL of 10%, his Top 10 probability in the first round won’t be 100%. For the top players in a field FRL * 5 > Top 5 first round probability, and the opposite is true for everyone else.

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Good point!

All my thinking had been around the lower probability players anyway, but took too much of a shortcut in the cumulative thinking then.

I do that in betting thinking, jump to a conclusion then rely on someone else correcting me or adding something! I do feel i’m onto something with this frl stuff, but struggling to prove it to myself. And know it would take forever to capture enough data to prove it with results rather than theory

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Yes, there is likely something simple here that can be used at least as a heuristic. I will think on it!