Hawaii 5 o - Course fit + History Adjustments

Some of these are pretty wild. Rahm being downgraded a lot or Scheffler upgraded, seems wrong to me at the moment. Rahmbo is playing well in everything and always plays well here.

Also some pretty big adjustments to Hovland.

Seems like Course History is really moving the points around?

Walk me through the logic on this one lads.

Edit: Might be the approach game from Scheffler helping out.

How are you coming to these conclusions? By comparing our numbers to the market, and concluding the differences must be course fit/history?

You can see the full breakdown of how we arrive at a player’s final skill here. The main reason we like Scheffler almost as much as Rahm is because Scheffler has continued to hit the ball incredibly well – he’s just been putting poorly. Rahm is getting the bigger boost for course fit / history.

If you want to see the full breakdown of where a player’s course fit adjustment is coming from, you can see that here.


No I was looking at the professional rankings and seeing Scheffler almost .5 SG behind Rahm it seemed strange to have him more likely to win, especially on top of the fact that Rahm generally plays very well here.

Rahm is only ~0.2 strokes up in the rankings, and then Scottie is getting a bump for SG cats and a couple other things. You can also look at our skill ratings which take into account more than the rankings do (which are just using round scores).

Looking at the skill ratings I can see why Rahm is not the favorite.

Rahm gained a lot of strokes putting last year, I could see him having an average (for him) season if it gets cold.

Kind of related to this thread - a theory on the Waialae CF… is it something to do varying degrees of rustiness/readiness rather than as a product of the course itself? And further to that, I’d be interested in the overall effect of time off on a player’s estimate (and which players buck those trends), so something broad like 1-3 weeks off, 4-6 and 7+?

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DG do degrade players based on time off IIRC

Saw Spieth 4/1 to win in some spots after Rd1. I wonder what the lowest price to win after Rd1 that then misses the cut (without injury or some other thing) has ever been.

RickRunGood posted a thing on twitter which showed 17 players since 2000 had led or co-led after R1 then missed the cut on the PGA Tour.


Scott withdrew rather than missing the cut, so take him out and there’s nobody there who would have been anywhere near 4/1.

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