Hello - someone had previously mentioned that it was possible to get the projected strokes for the field through the fantasy projection tool however, I can’t seem to find that info.
If anyone knows where to find that info please let me know. Thanks!
We post our projected scoring average for the field at the top of the fantasy page:
And then you can use the rightmost column on the skill decomposition page to get player-specific projections. e.g. Rahm’s projected score would be around -3.9 because we have him as 3.4 strokes better than the average player in this field.
Thanks, matt! I see rahm as +2.68 on the skill decomp page though. Would that not mean he’s projected to score 3.18 strokes under par (2.68 + 0.5)? Not sure where to find the 3.4
You have to subtract the average skill of the field (because the projected score on the fantasy page is for the specific field this week). Avg skill this week is around -0.7 (to get that yourself you’d have to download the skill decomp data).
Figured it out. Thank you!
For round score projections, is the process similar to above (skill decomp, subtract the average skill of the field, subtract scoring average to par per round) but replacing scoring average to par per round with the R_ SCORING AVERAGE TO PAR?
Thanks for the info. Would the FV of these stroke numbers be +100 when calculated like this?
I think roughly, yes. Golf scores are a bit skewed (the bad-score tail is longer) which means mean < median. So the odds of shooting below (i.e. playing better than) the mean projection is slightly more than 50%.
But when betting on raw scores the more important thing is assessing whether our projected overall scoring average is reasonable… for this week we aren’t going off of much. Just 2013 scores plus some guesses based on what the course looks like this week.
Terrific thread, and your responses have all been super helpful. But just want to make sure I understand. Do you find the avg skill of a given field by just finding the avg of the “baseline” column once you’ve downloaded the skill decomp data? There are no columns expressly labeled skill, so just wanna make sure I’m pulling the correct numbers.
No, it’s the column labelled “final_prediction” that you should be using if you want our ‘best’ estimates of player skill this week.
Ah, I see. That’s why I asked. Thank you
I see above that you noted the FV would be roughly +100 for DG’s stroke projections calculated in the manner above. Say, then, that you’re using those stroke projections as the basis of comparison against, for example, PrizePicks strokes props. Is there any minimum discrepancy you would require before comfortably feeling like you had an edge? As an example, for a player whose PrizePicks stroke line is 69.5, maybe you wouldn’t bet it unless DG projected X or fewer strokes for that player
wouldn’t bet the under* 69.5
Yeah I would probably want a 0.5 stroke edge or something around there, but I’ve never bet those props or analyzed our projections versus those props. As I said above the key projection here is how hard the course will play. I think our course difficulty projections are good… but sometimes they can be off simply because they are only based on historical data / data from rounds earlier in the current week. (And weather forecasts… but there are limitations to that.) So you always have to apply a critical lens to our overall difficulty projection and adjust accordingly.
That all makes sense. Thanks for your help!
Hello, just to make sure I am doing score calcs correctly as I’m about to bet some R1 scores on CZR for memorial tournament. Scott’s has u69.5 on czr at -130. His final skill decomp is 3.1 and score avg to par is .3. So he’d be projected to shoot a 67.2 (70-3.1+.3=67.2)
Not quite. The expected scoring average is for the average player in the field, which this week is +0.44 (you can get this by downloading the skill decomp data or using the API). So Scottie’s skill relative to the field is 3.0 (you have 3.1 but that’s a typo I think) minus 0.44, which is 2.56.
Also this week is a par 72, not 70, so his raw score projection is 72 + 0.3 - 2.56 = 69.74.
I am trying to figure this out but it is a little confusing. So on the fantasy page players are predicted to shoot -0.7 this week at the travelers championship. So using the skills comp page it says scottie is +2.94 this week. would that mean (2.94-.7)= 2.24… Would this mean we expect scottie to shoot 2.24 under par per round?
Gonna assume I am doing this wrong because it feels like it should not be that easy?
Is it not -3.64? -0.7 field average and Scottie is 2.94 better than that. -19 won last year so even -3.64 seems a bit low if it is like for like conditions. They’re not going to pummel them the week after the US Open.