How do I get expected strokes for the field from fantasy projections?

It is interesting the lengths people have gone to generate these raw score projections!

Yes, this will be roughly correct. The only new thing this person is doing (which was smart) is that they are working backwards from the fantasy projections to get the skill levels that generated them. From the wave split note, you can figure out how much we estimate 1 stroke is worth (e.g. if we project a 0.5 stroke wave split, and say that is worth 2 points, then 1 stroke = 4 points). This is usually around 4 points (although technically the course playing 1 stroke easier affects all players slightly differently depending on their skill; see fantasy FAQ). So if Scheffler is projected to earn 8 points more than the average fantasy score, we can infer that his skill level must 8/4 = 2 strokes better than average.

where does your 4.1 come from? and once you have the expected round score, do you calculate ev by using the standard deviation from the spreadsheet and a normal dist cdf?

The 4.1 comes from the note that is normally on the page, or from playing around with the projected scoring average option. Basically 1 stroke is typically worth about 4 points (depends on the exact scoring environment); so if two players are 4 points apart in their projections, that means we think there is a 1 shot difference between them (if they are playing the same course).

Once you have expected score, yeah you can use the SD and normal distribution. Not perfect, but pretty good.

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Just a clarification, the round fantasy score for each player mentioned above: is that just the “scoring_points” column, or is it the “total_points” column which includes the finishing_points?

It would be just scoring points.

this thread is wild. I love it, but also might need some clarification. I’m using the API, and trying to get expected strokes. there are a lot of formula’s above but what is the best one to use? are any outdated? for example I’m not seeing. scoring_points and such. maybe I’m not getting from the correct endpoint. thanks in advance :slight_smile:

like final in this image for Scottie is what strokes gained?

Would you be able to give an example using this formula using real numbers? Example: For masters 4th round?

When you mentioned the SD from a spreadsheet, which spreadsheet were you referring to? Is it specific to each player? Does DG provide scoring SD for each player?

When I calculate the projected stroke values for this week everything lights up unders. The bottom guys really bring down the average if we’re comparing the whole field with the projected score to par for R1. I deleted everyone from Blocky on down on the decomposition file and it drastically changed the numbers and flipped to a lot of overs. My question is whether the dregs of this tournament will not affect the scoring average more than is being considered?

The projected scoring average includes everyone.

I mean for R1 at a course that hasn’t been played in 10 years… it’s pretty much just a guess. The course didn’t play that hard in 2014.

edit: i re-read your question. Yes you could be right… maybe our skill levels are too optimistic on the club pros. I think last year or the year before we looked at how the club pros typically fare and it was around -4 true SG. The more likely answer is just that the sportsbooks are projecting a scoring average closer to +2.

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Looking at this week at Colonial, would this be the correct way to figure the projected round 1 score for Scheffler?

Player decomp final avg is 0.1
Scheffler is 3.19
Projected scoring avg to par per round for field is 1.1

So Scheffler is projected to average 3.09 strokes better than the field per round this week, which would mean he averages 1.99 strokes under par per round?

Although I assume that doesn’t account for his late tee time Thursday, which is a 0.4 stroke hurt compared to early. So does that mean his round 1 projected score is 1.79 strokes under par (0.9 over for early and 1.3 over for late to equal 1.1 over)? But if the scoring avg is for the week, is there even a way to calculate individual round scores? Thanks for any help!

Yes that seems correct. You can change the slate from “Main” to a specific round to get a round-specific scoring average.

Sounds good. Thank you!

how do you find a morning advantage or disadvantage ?