How do I get expected strokes for the field from fantasy projections?

It is interesting the lengths people have gone to generate these raw score projections!

Yes, this will be roughly correct. The only new thing this person is doing (which was smart) is that they are working backwards from the fantasy projections to get the skill levels that generated them. From the wave split note, you can figure out how much we estimate 1 stroke is worth (e.g. if we project a 0.5 stroke wave split, and say that is worth 2 points, then 1 stroke = 4 points). This is usually around 4 points (although technically the course playing 1 stroke easier affects all players slightly differently depending on their skill; see fantasy FAQ). So if Scheffler is projected to earn 8 points more than the average fantasy score, we can infer that his skill level must 8/4 = 2 strokes better than average.

where does your 4.1 come from? and once you have the expected round score, do you calculate ev by using the standard deviation from the spreadsheet and a normal dist cdf?

The 4.1 comes from the note that is normally on the page, or from playing around with the projected scoring average option. Basically 1 stroke is typically worth about 4 points (depends on the exact scoring environment); so if two players are 4 points apart in their projections, that means we think there is a 1 shot difference between them (if they are playing the same course).

Once you have expected score, yeah you can use the SD and normal distribution. Not perfect, but pretty good.

1 Like

Just a clarification, the round fantasy score for each player mentioned above: is that just the “scoring_points” column, or is it the “total_points” column which includes the finishing_points?

It would be just scoring points.