Hi folks,
New to using DG. I’ve been using the Pre-Tournament Prediction Model to make my picks for each week. I think I know the answer to this question but I’m gonna ask anyways.
Is it possible to create a model for upcoming tournaments that are not active? For example, this past week Genesis was the active tournament for the Pre-Tournament Predictions. But can I do the same thing with Honda tournament while Genesis was going on?
would love this. Especially for majors/Players
I think this would be a terrible idea. If you can do it, so can every DG member (both gambler and bookmaker).
Would just ensure that every odds compiler can be certain that there are no value spots for DG subscribers to hit when they set the odds.
If the full field confirmed that early? If it’s not the you could get some pretty inaccurate predictions and it’s probably why most bookmakers don’t offer that many golf futures bar majors and stuff.
I believe the field is set Friday afternoon. So earliest would be after that some time.
I agree with regular events. But major/Players odds are already out.
Just the outrights, not the prop markets, and I don’t think it’s beneficial to be betting on those early for a few reasons.
When all the main event golfers play, DG has minimal impact on odds movements. Quite often there are golfers who DG make 97.0 fair odds, his best bookmaker odds are 151, yet there’s easily 300 on the exchange because the market pretty much accepts that one of the top players are going to win it and stakes accordingly. If you’re on win only at 151, you’ve made a bad bet.
If you have the luxury of e/w betting, you’ll get 5 1/4 odds now, yet on the week of the event 10 1/5 odds will be fairly easy to find. Of course if one of the popular finds a purple patch of form, then you’re possibly best off getting on early but do you really need Datagolf to tell you to do that? They don’t update their model until Monday, so the market will have already reacted to (insert player here)'s fantastic performance and shortened him accordingly.
@johnstew We could try to get fields into the SG query tool earlier, for example. Quite a few people have asked about it. We will think about it – adding the current fields for the majors would probably be a good addition.
I’m not sure whether it would have much more of an impact on the market. I find now that the opening odds (before we’ve even posted our predictions) of bookmakers have come much more in line with our numbers in the last 1.5 years. In the last two designated events there was almost no value in the outright markets when we posted on Monday afternoon.
Compare that to LIV events (even ignoring this week, which is a crazy course fit week), where our opening update to the Scratch Tools typically shows a lot of value. I’m honestly not sure why that is, it’s not like pricing a LIV event is fundamentally any different than a PGA Tour event. Yes there’s no cut and it’s 3 rounds, but a book like Bet365, given all the markets they offer on a regular basis (i.e. lead after 3 rounds), should be able to handle this easily. I think it’s probably just because the LIV guys play less regularly / less people bet on LIV, so the market doesn’t absorb as much information from our model on a week-to-week basis.
Yeah, to be fair there’s never going to be a lot of value when all the top players are playing and the DG model make the top three in the market +EV e/w bets. The more question marks over an event, the more difficult it is to price up. Half of the field for this LIV event are either ancient, injured or coming off long lay-offs. The Indian event is a combination of locals, Challenge Tour graduates, players from other tours and middling European Tour players. It’s a lot harder to get those players right than the top players in the elevated events.
I’ll point out that the reason LIV wasn’t published until late on Tuesday was because not enough sites had published their odds. This worked out badly for me, because by the time odds were out it was 9pm UK time, and the bookmaker down the street who copy bet365’s odds were shut so I couldn’t get the 100/1 on Lee or 150/1 on Tringale I was eyeing up.
In the short-term this was bad, but if people could make their own odds for these fields then nobody would have gotten those odds because they would never have opened at those prices.
Honestly, people who want the ability to compose their own fields are just undercutting the community as a whole and ensuring that fewer people are getting on.
I agree to an extent re LIV but there is more going on. For example, Brendan Steele was just completely mis-priced – even ignoring course fit this week, he’s a top 15 player on LIV and they priced him in the bottom 15. They don’t make mistakes like that with the PGA or European Tours.
Wasn’t he value on the PGA Tour essentially every single week before he left?
It does seem like for these LIV events that one trader is making the market, and then every other bookmaker is copying them. On the other hand, you’ll see some variance on opening on the main two tours.
It could be that the one trader who seems to be setting LIV odds is bad at their job, and there’s a lack of interest from the gambling community at large in betting on these events. Lots of tipsters/analysts are writing betting pieces about the big tours, but you’d struggle to find any on LIV.
Yeah I think you are right he was (smaller) value in recent PGA Tour events. So that explains part of it, but it was a huge mis-price. I think we’ve had value on Steele recently because he’s been hitting it well but putting poorly, so we were giving him a boost because of that. But even just using his baseline skill (which wouldn’t account for that adjustment) we have him as a top 15 player on LIV.
I’d second this for the tools section only. It would be helpful to look at SG or Course Fit for Arnold Palmer today (Sunday) rather than tomorrow (Monday).