Hi,
First of all just wanted to say thanks for a fantastic product, really enjoying it so far!
Also, I wanted to hear any opinions regarding laying bets using the DG model. Obviously, value quickly disappears once the weekly projections are released and might be hard to find, especially with sharp bookmakers. However, using an exchange such as Betfair for example, I suppose there is value to be found by simply laying a golfer with significantly lower price compared to the estimated price from the model.
Needs a significant amount of stake of course in order to make money unless there is a massive favourite, but suppose this could be used on top 5, top 10 markets etc in order to balance the risk/reward.
Anyone been trying this or simply thinking about it?
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I have not heard from any subscribers that have tried a laying strategy on Betfair, but I think in theory it could work well. One thing to worry about is that when you are an odds-taker you don’t really need to worry about regressing your model’s odds to the market, whereas when you are an oddsmaker you do. We wrote about this a long time ago in a discontinued blog series, it’s mostly obvious stuff but it was useful to fully flesh it out.
For anyone that doesn’t feel like clicking on the link, the idea would be this: suppose the model prices Zac Blair at 100 this week but the market has him at 200. The true price sits in the middle of these two estimates at 150. If you are able to bet (back) Blair at 200 obviously this will be +EV, however if you lay him at anything under 150 it will be -EV. So, offering the model’s fair prices plus 10 or 20% juice often will still be -EV, assuming the true price sits somewhere between our model and the market.
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