I’ve seen a lot of these “EV” guys touting the “live page” probabilities after the event starts and comparing them to the books.
However, the “betting tools” page is the one to go with right (this morning for instance, when play has just started).
Example: I’m assuming Noh is 5.6 on the betting tools page to finish T5 because because it takes into account the discount (reduced pay) for dead heat finishes whereas the “live” page shows him over 7 percent. Imagine that’s just to finish top 5 whether it’s lone or a 15-way tie, taking no pay reduction into account?
I’m not sure where you see Noh at 5.6, but on the live model page there is a toggle for dead-heat probabilities on top of the table (above the ‘Trends’ column). So hopefully these guys have that toggle on, haha…
And yes betting tools always accounts for dead-heats.
Edit: 5.6%… gotcha. Had European odds on the mind.
At least this one I saw … definitely did not have the toggle on. Thank you so much!
Okay, feel free to send me the tweet if you see one making this mistake. I’ll correct them.
Also these EV guys probably aren’t going to get what they want just blindly betting the model… but I’ll let them figure that out themselves.
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Will do. this one was in a discord, so I messaged him. But ive seen others in the past, too. Will tag you if i see it again.
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Thanks, appreciate that.